MLB 2011: Philadelphia Phillies

Charlie Manuel, new contract in hand, skippers the N.L. favorites

Whatever you may want to call the Phillies starting pitching rotation, and there have been at least a half dozen nicknames tossed around town over the last few months, it will be those arms that make or break this particular version of the Fightin' Phils as they shoot for a 4th straight N.L. East division title. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels make for the best starting pitching rotation that baseball has seen for years, perhaps ever.

Halladay will turn 34 years old in mid-May, and he is clearly the Ace among Aces. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner last year in his first season with the Phils (it was his 2nd career Cy Young), the man known as 'Doc' tossed a perfect game last season, and then pitched a no-hitter to open the playoffs. He has been an all-star in 7 of the past 9 seasons. He has logged more than 220 innings pitched for the past 5 straight seasons.

When Cliff Lee turned down the Yankees tens-of-millions in order to return to a place that he claimed to love, he immediately renewed what was becoming a passionate affair with Phillies fans over the last few months of the 2009 season. After leading that Phils club to the World Series, Lee moved to Texas and led that club to it's first-ever Series appearance last year. He has been comfortably above the 200 innings pitched mark the past 3 seasons, and won the 2008 A.L. Cy Young Award. He won't run 33 until Labor Day weekend.

Roy Oswalt turns 34 a day before Lee turns 33, and would be the lead Ace on almost any other team in the Majors. Oswalt has been over the 200 innings pitched in 6 of the last 7 seasons, and was the 2005 NLCS MVP when he led the Astros into that franchise' only-ever World Series appearance. Cole Hamels is the kid of the group at 27 years of age, and is the only career-long member of the franchise. The 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP, Hamels has been over the 180 innings pitched mark for the last 4 straight years, and may be in line for a dominating season pitching out of the #4 slot in the rotation.

Put those four arms at the front of any team in baseball, and you have a contender. But that's not all the Phillies have at their disposal on the mound. There is the current 5th starter, Joe Blanton, who is a legitimate #3 for most teams and solid #3-4 on any contending club. The 30-year old righty has been over the 170 inning mark in every single full season that he has pitched. 26-year old Kyle Kendrick pitched over 180 innings last year. Clearly the Phils have more than enviable depth that not only would serve them well throughout a long season, but it also can make for valuable trade bait should any holes develop in the everyday lineup or bullpen.

That everyday lineup has previously been the Phillies calling card. The booming bats and lightening legs combination in the batting order of Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and supporting players such as Pat Burrell, Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez and others led the Fightin's to their early successes in winning the 2007 division title and the 2008 World Series. Longtime cornerstones Burrell and Werth are gone now (Pat the Bat having won another World Series last year with the Giants) and both injuries and age are creeping up on some of the rest.

Let's start out with the apparently healthy guys. Ryan Howard is believed to have had a down year last season. But the 31-year old slugging 1st baseman bashed 31 homers and drove in 108 runs despite missing nearly a month with an injury. In his prime, healthy, and in shape, Howard should be primed for another big 35-40 homerun season out of the cleanup slot. At 30 years old, the dynamic Shane Victorino has now won 3 straight NL Gold Gloves in centerfield, and he was 3rd in the league last year in both triples and stolen bases. Left fielder Raul Ibanez will turn 39-years old in early June, and is likely beginning his final season in Philly. He is a supporting bat now, still fully capable of a .270-20 homer-80 rbi season. Carlos Ruiz is the catcher, and one of the best in the game at both handling a pitching staff and in his catch-and-throw skills. He is also a tremendous clutch hitter.

The rest of the bats may make or break the entire Phillies season. At the start of spring training it was expected that top prospect phenom Domonic Brown would battle veteran Ben Francisco to replace the productive Werth in right field. But Brown broke the hamate bone in his hand early in camp, and Francisco had a strong spring to apparently nail down the job, at least to start the season. His ability to be productive in his first real chance as a starting regular in the Majors will be one key, as will Brown's return from injury by mid-summer. 3rd baseman Placido Polanco is now 35-years old and coming off a solid season in which he was limited by an elbow injury. He has been slow this spring to recover fully, but should be healthy and the Phils should be able to expect a little more than last year's 6 homers and 52 rbi.

The biggest questions and answers in the Phillies lineup concern the mega-talented Keystone combo of 2nd baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy 'JRoll' Rollins. Both players turned 32 years old this winter, missed major chunks of the 2010 season with injury problems, and are going in completely opposite directions this spring. For JRoll it appears to be a year of recovery and a return to being the dynamic, driving force at the top of the team's batting order. For Utley, it's more injury concerns, this time a chronic, cranky right knee that has just not responded thus far to simple rest. Chase has not played in a game during spring training, will start the year on the DL, and is likely out at least until May.

The Phillies can likely get by with Utley out even for a couple of months. As long as Rollins, Howard, Ibanez, Polanco, Victorino, Francisco and Ruiz remain healthy, the lineup will have plenty enough offensive strength to compliment the outstanding starting pitching. 2nd base will likely be professionally manned for defensive purposes by Wilson Valdez, who was excellent spelling Utley, Rollins and Polanco last season during their various injuries. Veteran Luis Castillo has been brought in at the end of spring for a quick look-see, but must seriously impress to stick. The bench has talent and experience in Ross Gload, Brian Schneider and John Mayberry. Either Michael Martinez or Brian Bocock are also likely to help as depth.

Besides the big losses of Utley and Brown, the bullpen is where the 3rd big loss has developed. Closer Brad Lidge is now scheduled to begin the season on the DL for the 3rd time in his 4 seasons with the Phillies. The man who was "Lights Out" and perfect for the '08 World Series champs collapsed in '09, but then rebounded nicely last year. Until he is ready to go, the end of games will likely fall to either perennial back-end guy Ryan Madson or wily veteran Jose Contreras. Veteran lefty J.C. Romero is also back. The rest of the pen will come from some combination of righties Danys Baez and Scott Mathieson, and lefties Antonio Bastardo and Mike Zagurski. All may be needed at one time or another to get the club through, though with the Big Four starters all burning up major innings totals, that will alleviate a need for middle-innings relief most nights.

Fortunately for the Philadelphia Phillies, they are being guided by one of the most professional players managers in the history of the game in Charlie Manuel. The man who has gone from a talk-show joke to the beloved "Uncle Charlie" thanks to his success was rewarded this off-season with a contract extension. Manuel's calm hand and down-home style guided the team through last year's injury debacle, and he is the perfect man at the helm of this ship to guide it through almost any type of storm. He is likely to ride the big horses in his rotation and whatever regulars in the lineup are healthy as far as they will take him, which should be pretty far once again.

In my previous two MLB predictions articles here, I tipped my hand that I was predicting the Phillies to win their 5th straight N.L. East crown, their 3rd National League pennant in 4 seasons, and then lose a dramatic and exciting World Series to the Boston Red Sox. The Fightin' Phils could just as easily win that Series if all of their starting pitchers are healthy and clicking come October. However, the one big thing that could keep the team from even meeting that ultimate goal is injuries. The fans who will once again sellout every date at Citizens Bank Park have to hope that the Utley, Lidge and Brown situations don't end up becoming a harbinger of things to come.

Phillies Are Now Slump Proof

Throughout the stretch run of the 2010 season and again in at least both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, given reasonable health, the Philadelphia Phillies will remain a contending baseball team. They will remain so because their trade deadline acquisition of right-handed starting pitcher Roy Oswalt has now made them virtually slump-proof.

Every team will go through slumps during the course of a 6-month long, 162-game season. The slumps will come because the team doesn't hit collectively on a consistent basis. They come because injuries hit, sometimes as with this year's Phillies to multiple key players at the same time. They come because there is simply not enough pitching, and that bad pitching gets beat up by good professional hitters.

The one thing that can make a team 'slump-proof', or much more unlikely and infrequently than other teams to a slump or multiple slumps during a long season, is the presence of consistently strong starting pitching. The Phillies now run three true ace starting pitchers at other teams: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt. The odds that all three will lose their respective turn through the rotation are long. The odds that will happen twice in a row are even longer.

Most teams want to have what is known as an 'ace', or a 'stopper'. A true 'ace' is a top-of-the-line starting pitcher, one of the perhaps twenty best starters in the entire game.
The nickname of 'stopper' comes from the fact that when a team does enter into a slump and loses 2-3-4 games in a row, the 'stopper' will usually take the hill, pitch a gem, shut the opposition down, and stop the losing skid before it gets too long.

Keeping slumps from getting lengthy increases the odds over time that your club will stay in contention. What the Phillies now have with their 'Big Three' are three aces, three stoppers. This not only decreases the odds of a slump, it also increases the odds of the Phillies win more often than not. If the 'Big Three' win most of their starts that means the Fightins are winning at least 3 of every 5 games most of the time.

Winning 3 out of 5 means that you go 3-2, and do that over 150 games and your record is 90-60 with a dozen left to play. That is going to be enough to get you into the playoffs the vast majority of seasons, especially when you consider that your 4th and 5th starters, in the Phillies case that would be Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick, are going to win a few themselves.

Last night, Halladay took the hill in New York against the Mets. The Phillies by any measure have slumped in the Big Apple this season. They had not yet scored there this season, and had wasted a gem by Hamels the night before in a 1-0 loss. They needed Halladay to be what he was, an ace. Halladay shutout the Mets over 8 strong innings and was followed by a Ryan Madson tight-rope walk in the 9th for a 4-0 win. Combined with a loss by Atlanta, the Phils have now moved back within 2 games of the Braves in the NL east standings.

So far in the 2010 season, Halladay has fashioned a 15-8 record with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 175 strikeouts in 193 innings pitched. Oswalt and Hamels records are not as good, but Oswalt with mostly Houston and Hamels here in Philly have been two of the least-supported pitchers in the game. Oswalt has a 3.34 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 134 strikeouts in 148 innings. Hamels has a 3.33 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP, and 157 batters over 154 innings.

Of Halladay's 25 starts, 19 have been what are known as 'Quality' starts, meaning he has pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer earned runs. It is the ultimate sign of at least keeping your team competitively in the game. Hamels figure is 14 of 24 starts, Oswalt is at 17 of 23 starts. Between the three of them total, that means 50 of their 72 starts have been quality enough to give their team a better than average chance of winning. In many cases, those starts have actually been better than the minimum 6 innings and 3 earned runs allowed, they have been truly dominant.

This is what Atlanta will be up against as they try to hold off the Phils for the rest of August and through September into early October. The Phils will keep the pressure on as they run out quality starters for most every game the rest of the way. Atlanta has a good staff too with Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. But Jurrjens and Hanson don't have the pennant race pedigree of the Phils' three aces.

And while the Phillies are about to get the two biggest veteran bats back into their lineup in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the Braves have lost their lineup's biggest veteran leader in Chipper Jones for the rest of the season. Barring injuries to any of the 'Big Three' and with reasonable results from Blanton and Kendrick, the Phillies are now slump-proof. With control of their contracts for at least the next couple seasons, the Phillies should remain contenders for the foreseeable future as well.

Hamels Frustrating Season Continues

We all know that good pitching stops good hitting most of the time, and that games start to get tighter and more tense as pennant races begin to heat up in mid-August and on into September. But three teams battling in a pennant race (well, at least two really are) all playing a 1-0 game on the same night?

Here in Philly we all witnessed the Fightin's latest frustrations at the hands of a knuckleballer. This time it was Mets righty R.A. Dickey tossing a 1-hitter, of all things. And the one hit was a simple flare that dropped in off the bat of pitcher Cole Hamels. Meanwhile the Braves and Mets were both winning 1-0 games on the same night, the Atlanta win opening up a 3-game lead for them in the division race.

The Phils are playing a bit shorthanded still with both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out of the lineup. But no hits from anyone in the lineup against a guy who throws most of his pitches at maybe 75mph? You can't smartly adjust your approach for one game in a known situation like that, especially when it's already happened to you multiple times in 2010?

A couple of months ago my wife and I had the misfortune of watching the Phils get similarly shut down by the Red Sox extremely hittable veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in person at Citizens Bank Park. I remember clearly turning to her around the 3rd inning after she said "They better start hitting soon" and telling her something to the effect of "They'll have 7-8 runs at least before this game is over." The joke was on me.


Last night, the joke was on Hamels - again. He has been simply masterful for the better part of this season, and yet sits here in mid-August with a 7-9 record. The frustration began on April 18th when Hamels allowed just 7 hits and no walks while striking out 8 over 8 strong innings vs. the Marlins, only to take a loss. An 8-inning no decision on May 4th vs. the Cardinals, an 8-inning 3-hitter vs. the Padres on June 7th, 7-inning 5-hitters vs. the Twins on June 19th and Pirates on July 1st.

Perhaps the worst for Hamels was an 8-inning 1-hitter vs. Saint Louis on July 22nd. So far in August, Hamels has now made three starts. He has allowed just 17 hits and 2 walks across 22 strong innings while striking out 29 batters. For all that excellent work, his win-loss record in those games is now 0-2.

By any reasonable and fair measure, Hamels could very easily have a record somewhere in the 18-4 neighborhood, which would clearly leave him as a leading Cy Young candidate. His season line includes a 3.33 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, a 157-48 K-BB ratio, and fewer hits than innings pitched. He has been dominant. That he is not contending for his first Cy Young is the fault of the Phillies hitters.

To the absolute credit of the 26-year old lefty, Hamels has grown up. He has not allowed the continual frustrations of the offense to affect him. In the past, any signs of negativity clearly got to the emotional Hamels. He would roll his eyes, stalk around the mound, slam down the resin bag, look Heavenward for answers. This year, no matter the circumstances, he has simply taken the ball and fired.

The maturation of Cole Hamels is something that should benefit the Phillies in September, as should the support of talented veterans Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt joining him this year at the top of the rotation. The return of Howard and Utley will hopefully help the offense begin to get him the results that his pitching has deserved. For today, however, it's another frustrating morning for the talented young lefty and his 2-time defending pennant winning ballclub.

Look Out Braves, Phillies Gettin' Healthy

The Phillies activated Shane 'the Flyin Hawaiian' Victorino today from the 15-day DL, optioning lefty reliever Antonio Bastardo back to AAA Lehigh Valley. It's a good news-bad news deal for the Phils, who really could use that 2nd lefty out of the pen to complement J.C. Romero. Bastardo has done well in his opportunities, has a nice arm, and will undoubtedly be back no later than September 1st for the stretch run. His demotion is the bad news.

The good news is that Victorino is back. He will be ready to go tonight vs. the Dodgers, though it is unclear as to whether Charlie Manuel will have him back in the starting lineup right away. I can't see why he wouldn't be manning centerfield and hitting either leadoff or in the #6 slot, however, because he proved in a pair of pretty strong rehab outings the last two nights that he was just fine.

Shane's return to the club continues the Phillies' return to overall health. Primary setup reliever Ryan Madson returned in early July after missing two months of the season. Starting shortstop Jimmy Rollins returned in mid-June and is still working his way back to full health after missing nearly two months worth of the season. Starting 3rd baseman Placido Polanco returned in mid-July after missing over three weeks, and starting catcher Carlos Ruiz returned in mid-July after missing nearly a month.

With the return of Victorino and his 15 homers and 20 steals production to the lineup, the Phillies have just two more big pieces left before they can call themselves truly, fully healthy. Those two missing pieces may be the two biggest pieces, and when they return it will be akin to the club signing two major free agents and adding them to the lineup.

Starting 1st baseman and cleanup hitter Ryan Howard has missed the last ten days with a sprained ankle, and he will likely be out another week. Starting 2nd baseman and #3-hole hitter Chase Utley has missed a month and a half, and was just cleared to begin hitting again. He is due to return in about two weeks.

Somehow through all of these injuries (none of this has even mentioned the loss for the season, possibly his career, of veteran lefty Jamie Moyer) the Phillies have managed to fight back into the East Division race and the NL Wildcard race. The club currently stands just 2 1/2 games back of the Braves in the division, and Atlanta is just now learning that it has lost veteran 3rd baseman and leader Chipper Jones for the season due to injury.

With the trade deadline acquisition of righthander Roy Oswalt from Houston, the Phillies rotation big three of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Oswalt should make them virtually slump-proof for the rest of the season, no matter what the offense does. But that offense should now begin to get significantly better with the return of the starting lineup. Not only will that everyday lineup be better, but the bench will then be deeper and even more ready with everyone having received increased playing time.

It looks like the Atlanta Braves and the rest of the National League are going to have a healthy and confident defending champion stomping around in September. The fans who have continued to fill Citizens Bank Park all summer long and kept the carnival atmosphere around the team going strong through the dog days should finally be rewarded as the season rolls into it's most exciting final few weeks.