This week finally Mr. Nawaz Shareef the twice elected Prime Minister of Pakistan was allowed back into the country. Mr. Shareef made an attempt to return home in September this year but he was gift wrapped and flown back to a Saudi version of Guantanamo Bay customized for foreign dignitaries who can be recycled if America deems fit.
Mr. Shareef had been in exile for over seven years now and for most part of this time he was kept out of the media spot light which must have been extremely frustrating for him but he has made good use of his time apparently with hair transplants and improved communication skills. I was amused to read an article about Pakistan recently in which Mr. Shareef was described as 'Charismatic'. For almost six years the Shareef family and PML (N) kept denying any agreement with the government and insisted that he was forced to leave the country. Then in August this year when he announced his plans to return to the country all of a sudden his stance changed and he started insisting that he had agreed to stay out for a period of five years and the government stood by its previous statement that Mr. Shareef was to stay in exile for 10 years.
As his arrival date in September approached the Musharraf government reached out to the foreign guarantor and for the first time it was revealed that the Saudi government was the guarantor and the 'denied' agreement was waved in public by an envoy of the Saudi King, however, content of this agreement were never made public. Both parties to the agreement were having a go at each other but were refusing to admit to the fact that direct blatant involvement of the Saudis into our internal affairs was embarrassing for Pakistan in the international community. But Musharrafiites and Shareefs were constantly referring to the Saudis as our 'Respected Friends' knowing that they might need them in future.
On September 10 the Shareef' brothers managed to put together a theatrical performance that probably would have made everyone at 'the Rai Wind Institute of Performing Arts' very proud when at the Heathrow Airport, Nawaz as the older brother and leader ordered Shahbaz to stay back to look after PML (N) in case he was arrested. Then Mr. Shareef arrived in Islamabad greeted only by the ruthless police which forced him to board a plane to Jeddah within 4 hours of his arrival and I am pretty sure he wasn't even offered a glass of 'lassi' during his brief stay. This was done despite clear orders by the then Supreme Court to allow him into the country, I would not get into that for now because that is an entirely different issue.
Points to be noted were that he came alone, there were no serious attempts by PML (N) to arrange a welcome party and there were no major protests once he was 'deported'. Mr. Shareef had actually made a huge political mistake by announcing his date of arrival without specific approval from the Saudi government (must have been a misun
derstanding somewhere) and when the Saudis revealed themselves and an envoy of the King publicly asked Mr. Shareef to cancel his plans he did not have much of a choice, because annoying the Saudis is not option for him or any other politician, however, cancelling his plans after Saudi envoy's statement would have been political suicide, so it was cleverly planned in a way to allow Mr. Shareef a brief touch down saving his political career and keeping the agreement in tact by sending him back. Far as orders of the Supreme Court were concerned we now know for a fact what Mr. Musharraf thought of them.
Mr. Shareef had been in exile for over seven years now and for most part of this time he was kept out of the media spot light which must have been extremely frustrating for him but he has made good use of his time apparently with hair transplants and improved communication skills. I was amused to read an article about Pakistan recently in which Mr. Shareef was described as 'Charismatic'. For almost six years the Shareef family and PML (N) kept denying any agreement with the government and insisted that he was forced to leave the country. Then in August this year when he announced his plans to return to the country all of a sudden his stance changed and he started insisting that he had agreed to stay out for a period of five years and the government stood by its previous statement that Mr. Shareef was to stay in exile for 10 years.
As his arrival date in September approached the Musharraf government reached out to the foreign guarantor and for the first time it was revealed that the Saudi government was the guarantor and the 'denied' agreement was waved in public by an envoy of the Saudi King, however, content of this agreement were never made public. Both parties to the agreement were having a go at each other but were refusing to admit to the fact that direct blatant involvement of the Saudis into our internal affairs was embarrassing for Pakistan in the international community. But Musharrafiites and Shareefs were constantly referring to the Saudis as our 'Respected Friends' knowing that they might need them in future.
On September 10 the Shareef' brothers managed to put together a theatrical performance that probably would have made everyone at 'the Rai Wind Institute of Performing Arts' very proud when at the Heathrow Airport, Nawaz as the older brother and leader ordered Shahbaz to stay back to look after PML (N) in case he was arrested. Then Mr. Shareef arrived in Islamabad greeted only by the ruthless police which forced him to board a plane to Jeddah within 4 hours of his arrival and I am pretty sure he wasn't even offered a glass of 'lassi' during his brief stay. This was done despite clear orders by the then Supreme Court to allow him into the country, I would not get into that for now because that is an entirely different issue.
Points to be noted were that he came alone, there were no serious attempts by PML (N) to arrange a welcome party and there were no major protests once he was 'deported'. Mr. Shareef had actually made a huge political mistake by announcing his date of arrival without specific approval from the Saudi government (must have been a misun
derstanding somewhere) and when the Saudis revealed themselves and an envoy of the King publicly asked Mr. Shareef to cancel his plans he did not have much of a choice, because annoying the Saudis is not option for him or any other politician, however, cancelling his plans after Saudi envoy's statement would have been political suicide, so it was cleverly planned in a way to allow Mr. Shareef a brief touch down saving his political career and keeping the agreement in tact by sending him back. Far as orders of the Supreme Court were concerned we now know for a fact what Mr. Musharraf thought of them.On the other hand Ms. Benazir Bhutto intelligently and selfishly lobbied in Washington and negotiated with Mr. Musharraf and ensured that a National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) (2007) was issued and got herself a safe and rather glorious passage into the country. In return she supported Mr. Musharraf in his elections as a Uniformed President. Some of Ms. Bhutto's supporters were not happy with this 'deal' because they thought it was against everything late Zulfiqar Bhutto stood for.
Then Mr. Musharraf ran out of patience with the Supreme Court and yet another Martial Law was imposed on the country, Ms. Bhutto saw this as an opportunity to politically recover from the impact of the deal by pretending to be the most prominent democratic force, however, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) did not stage any serious protest the Long March was not so long after all, it was a practical joke carried out reasonably well by Shah Mahmood Qureshi. The truth is that Ms. Bhutto must have been relieved by the departure of Mr. Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry because the NRO which basically cleared Ms. Bhutto of all wrong doings and corruption charges was almost certain to be thrown out by the Supreme Court for its very basic flaw i.e. the law was discriminatory and under the suspended constitution of 1973 ex-public office bearers can not be treated any differently from common man, law has to be the same for all Pakistanis.
Mr. Musharraf was under extreme pressure from the US to announce elections and give up his office as Army Chief, and he is smart enough to know that his Band of Chaudhries, Mullas, and foul mouthing advisors was incapable of competing with the PPP's popular ways in the elections and otherwise. Ms. Bhutto at the same time is increasing political pressure on Mr. Musharraf by threatening to boycott elections which would obviously take away every shred of legitimacy from the process.
Now Mr. Musharraf had no choice but to pay a visit to the Holy Land to offer Umrah of course, and he had also realized that to control PPP's movement he needed to empower the other popular party PML (N) and I am sure he is aware of the risks involved.
Once again Mr. Shareef announced his return to our beloved homela
nd and this time he landed at the Lahore airport instead of Islamabad and he was allowed into the country and a large number of PML (N) supporters were allowed to greet him and he led his PPP styled procession to Daata Durbar in the heart of Lahore. He was not arrested and there were no baton charges by the police force.
Mr.Shareef is once again denying any deal with the government - what a surprise. But circumstantial evidence is once again suggesting otherwise, it must be noted that this time he was not traveling on a PIA flight, it was a special plane sent by the Saudi King, he was accompanied by his 'intelligent and eloquent' brother, wife, sons, daughters, and a son-in-law. All of this was in stark contrast of his arrival in September 2007 and one is left wondering that if there was no deal how come this time Mr. Shareef chose to travel with all his family and the plane belonged to the Saudi King?
Personally I think his deal is much more simpler than Ms. Bhutto's because Mr. Musharraf desperately needs the elections to go smoothly which would give him legitimacy for the next five years (Musharraf supporters would be keeping their fingers crossed, because I would be surprised even if he remains civilian President for two years), so he would have asked Mr. Shareef to participate in the elections because if PML (N) decides to get involved in the process then PPP would have no choice but to follow suit because Ms. Bhutto will never leave the field open for PML (N). Mr. Musharraf would be counting on the fact that history suggests that Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Shareef are incapable of working together (Charter of Democracy!!!) because of the mistrust which has been there for a long time.
However, I would not be surprised if Mr.Shareef's PML (N) refuses to keep its part of the deal, but at the same time I am assuming that Mr. Musharraf would have ensured his own safety by involving a foreign guarantor once again because personal safety and long term ambitions are of course more important than National interest so we don’t mind Saudis and Americans telling us how to run our country.
It is almost funny to watch Q league being sacrificed at the altar of democracy, poor Mr. Pervez Ellahi's dreams of holding the Prime Minister's office have been all but shattered and currently Mr. Shaukat Aziz is like an abonded kitten on a highway and he is heading towards his natural end and Q league have shown their appreciation by not making him a candidate for the upcoming elections.
In the current circumstances it appears that all major parties will participate in the elections, the only Party / Person who has conclusively decided to boycott the elections is the bruised Imran Khan, and Mr. Musharraf would not be worried by him and would probably ask him to pay another visit to the Punjab University. This would lead to Mr. Musharraf taking oath as a civilian President. The elections would be rigged of course, the voter turn out would be poor and there would be coalition government in Islamabad.
However, with Mr. Musharraf's eventual retirement an unknown variable has been added to the equation, he is the new Army Chief General Kiyani and it would be interesting to see how he reacts in this situation, it would be stupid to think that a General would not be ambitious but we will have to wait and see if circumstances would allow him to promote himself to the next level, going by the traditions it would be very hard for him to throw Mr. Musharraf out directly but he can align himself with the so called democratic forces which could lead to Mr. Musharraf 's departure. But it is too early to comment on this.
Media at the same time is doing an excellent job at distracting the people because the largest private TV channel is portraying itself as a the biggest casualty of the Emergency / Martial Law, this is obviously not true but they are organizing protests all over the world and are running meaningless promotional videos and I am sure this is not just a coincident. This same TV channel staged a fake attack on its Islamabad office in March this year when the Lawyers' movement for restoration of the Chief Justice was going strong, Mr. Musharraf then did an exclusive interview with this channel and nobody mentioned this event afterwards, very convenient !!
For Pakistanis there is very little hope of making any progress towards democracy because all politicians are desperately trying to convince America that they are the next best thing and nobody is really concerned about the people, we are getting closer to a stage where people would just simply stop talking about the Judiciary and imprisoned Judges of the Supreme Court. As I have said previously people would soon get involved with the elections and everything would look fine from a distance.
The politicians would continue with their deals and denials but the Pakistanis must remain focused on restoration of democracy, independence of Judiciary and putting an end to military involvement in our political system. At the moment we are not even close to achieving any of this and the fact that we have no genuine leadership is haunting the nation like never before.
Like always I would remain optimistic and hope that God will Bless Pakistan !!
Then Mr. Musharraf ran out of patience with the Supreme Court and yet another Martial Law was imposed on the country, Ms. Bhutto saw this as an opportunity to politically recover from the impact of the deal by pretending to be the most prominent democratic force, however, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) did not stage any serious protest the Long March was not so long after all, it was a practical joke carried out reasonably well by Shah Mahmood Qureshi. The truth is that Ms. Bhutto must have been relieved by the departure of Mr. Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry because the NRO which basically cleared Ms. Bhutto of all wrong doings and corruption charges was almost certain to be thrown out by the Supreme Court for its very basic flaw i.e. the law was discriminatory and under the suspended constitution of 1973 ex-public office bearers can not be treated any differently from common man, law has to be the same for all Pakistanis.
Mr. Musharraf was under extreme pressure from the US to announce elections and give up his office as Army Chief, and he is smart enough to know that his Band of Chaudhries, Mullas, and foul mouthing advisors was incapable of competing with the PPP's popular ways in the elections and otherwise. Ms. Bhutto at the same time is increasing political pressure on Mr. Musharraf by threatening to boycott elections which would obviously take away every shred of legitimacy from the process.
Now Mr. Musharraf had no choice but to pay a visit to the Holy Land to offer Umrah of course, and he had also realized that to control PPP's movement he needed to empower the other popular party PML (N) and I am sure he is aware of the risks involved.
Once again Mr. Shareef announced his return to our beloved homela
nd and this time he landed at the Lahore airport instead of Islamabad and he was allowed into the country and a large number of PML (N) supporters were allowed to greet him and he led his PPP styled procession to Daata Durbar in the heart of Lahore. He was not arrested and there were no baton charges by the police force.Mr.Shareef is once again denying any deal with the government - what a surprise. But circumstantial evidence is once again suggesting otherwise, it must be noted that this time he was not traveling on a PIA flight, it was a special plane sent by the Saudi King, he was accompanied by his 'intelligent and eloquent' brother, wife, sons, daughters, and a son-in-law. All of this was in stark contrast of his arrival in September 2007 and one is left wondering that if there was no deal how come this time Mr. Shareef chose to travel with all his family and the plane belonged to the Saudi King?
Personally I think his deal is much more simpler than Ms. Bhutto's because Mr. Musharraf desperately needs the elections to go smoothly which would give him legitimacy for the next five years (Musharraf supporters would be keeping their fingers crossed, because I would be surprised even if he remains civilian President for two years), so he would have asked Mr. Shareef to participate in the elections because if PML (N) decides to get involved in the process then PPP would have no choice but to follow suit because Ms. Bhutto will never leave the field open for PML (N). Mr. Musharraf would be counting on the fact that history suggests that Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Shareef are incapable of working together (Charter of Democracy!!!) because of the mistrust which has been there for a long time.
However, I would not be surprised if Mr.Shareef's PML (N) refuses to keep its part of the deal, but at the same time I am assuming that Mr. Musharraf would have ensured his own safety by involving a foreign guarantor once again because personal safety and long term ambitions are of course more important than National interest so we don’t mind Saudis and Americans telling us how to run our country.
It is almost funny to watch Q league being sacrificed at the altar of democracy, poor Mr. Pervez Ellahi's dreams of holding the Prime Minister's office have been all but shattered and currently Mr. Shaukat Aziz is like an abonded kitten on a highway and he is heading towards his natural end and Q league have shown their appreciation by not making him a candidate for the upcoming elections.
In the current circumstances it appears that all major parties will participate in the elections, the only Party / Person who has conclusively decided to boycott the elections is the bruised Imran Khan, and Mr. Musharraf would not be worried by him and would probably ask him to pay another visit to the Punjab University. This would lead to Mr. Musharraf taking oath as a civilian President. The elections would be rigged of course, the voter turn out would be poor and there would be coalition government in Islamabad.
However, with Mr. Musharraf's eventual retirement an unknown variable has been added to the equation, he is the new Army Chief General Kiyani and it would be interesting to see how he reacts in this situation, it would be stupid to think that a General would not be ambitious but we will have to wait and see if circumstances would allow him to promote himself to the next level, going by the traditions it would be very hard for him to throw Mr. Musharraf out directly but he can align himself with the so called democratic forces which could lead to Mr. Musharraf 's departure. But it is too early to comment on this.
Media at the same time is doing an excellent job at distracting the people because the largest private TV channel is portraying itself as a the biggest casualty of the Emergency / Martial Law, this is obviously not true but they are organizing protests all over the world and are running meaningless promotional videos and I am sure this is not just a coincident. This same TV channel staged a fake attack on its Islamabad office in March this year when the Lawyers' movement for restoration of the Chief Justice was going strong, Mr. Musharraf then did an exclusive interview with this channel and nobody mentioned this event afterwards, very convenient !!
For Pakistanis there is very little hope of making any progress towards democracy because all politicians are desperately trying to convince America that they are the next best thing and nobody is really concerned about the people, we are getting closer to a stage where people would just simply stop talking about the Judiciary and imprisoned Judges of the Supreme Court. As I have said previously people would soon get involved with the elections and everything would look fine from a distance.
The politicians would continue with their deals and denials but the Pakistanis must remain focused on restoration of democracy, independence of Judiciary and putting an end to military involvement in our political system. At the moment we are not even close to achieving any of this and the fact that we have no genuine leadership is haunting the nation like never before.
Like always I would remain optimistic and hope that God will Bless Pakistan !!
