MLB 2009: National League

Unlike the American League, which I covered in yesterday's entry and which is dominated by three teams, the National League pennant race in MLB is wide open. This is both good news and bad for our own Phillies. The bad news is that there are a lot of pretty good teams in the NL that the Phils will have to battle if they want to repeat as National League champions. The good news is that the Phils are one of them, and there is no team that is clearly superior to our defending World Series champs. Tomorrow will be devoted specifically to covering those Phils, but in starting out with the NL East race, let's just say that the Phils match up well with every team, and are better than most. They and the Mets are fairly even, though I still like the Phillies top-to-bottom lineup, their bench, and the depth in their bullpen better than New York. Those Mets will be a strong contender with a lineup that features one of the best young players and leaders in the game in 3rd baseman David Wright and one of the game's most exciting players in speedy shortstop Jose Reyes. Veteran bats like the two Carlos', Delgado and Beltran, provide run-producing pop as well. The rotation is headed by all-world lefty Johan Santana, but has a bunch of question marks after him. The Mets arguably would have won the division the past two years, and possibly a World Series of their own, if they just were able to finish out close games with their bullpen. They finally met that need this off-season by signing record-setting closer Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez, and yet another closer to back him up in J.J. Putz. If they stay healthy, the Mets will not blow many 9th inning leads this time around. But this time the race will not stop at just the Phils and Mets. It seems like every 5-6 years or so the Florida Marlins accumulate enough strong young talent to become serious contenders, and this is possibly one of those years. Their middle infield of 2nd baseman Dan Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez rivals the Phils' own middle of Utley-Rollins as the best in baseball. They have a future all-star in Cameron Maybin about to burst on the scene in their outfield. And their young pitching has depth and talent that is the envy of every team outside of Tampa. The Fish are a couple bats short, and their bullpen is not good enough to overtake the Phils and Mets. But they will make it interesting much of the year, as will the Atlanta Braves. Perhaps no team but the Yankees improved their starting pitching rotation more than the Bravos this off-season. Atlanta added four solid veterans in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, and future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. They team with youngster Jair Jurrjens to give the Braves the best rotation in the east, assuming these guys stay healthy. The Braves lineup has good young parts led by catcher Brian McCann, but the key to contending will be the health of veteran leader Chipper Jones (pictured). If the Braves get a full season out of him, and if both outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson produce, the Braves could seriously challenge the top two teams. I am going to call it in this order: Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals. In the NL Central, most prognosticators are picking the Chicago Cubs, as well as installing the Cubbies as favorites for the NL pennant and a trip to the World Series. There are plenty of reasons to like them starting with a talented and varied offense that includes Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovanny Soto. In the off-season the Cubs signed mercurial outfielder Milton Bradley. I am going to install him as a dark-horse MVP candidate, because if he can stay healthy he has the talent to be a difference-maker for this team. The Cubs have depth and talent in both their rotation and bullpen, but that rotation could easily be set back by injuries. If Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano hold up, the Cubs should win the NL Central. But hot on their heels could well be either or both of the Milwaukee Brewers, whose offense led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun matches up with anyone, or the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have the mighty Albert Pujols back and at full strength, and that is truly scary since he won the NL MVP a year ago during a season in which he was injured. They also get back from injury a pair of arms in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and these guys staying healthy all year will be the key to the Cards staying with the Cubbies. Out in the NL West we can just refer to this as 'Manny Land', because the Dodgers' superstar and future Hall of Famer will be the key to this race. If his head is on straight and he is at full health, Manny will be Manny, and he will lead Joe Torre's troops to another division title. With a vastly improved middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal, and with returning young bats in Russ Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, this lineup could contend even without Ramirez. Beyond young ace Chad Billingsley, who still has to prove he can carry that mantle, and strong closer Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers pitching staff is uncharacteristically full of question marks. Right on their heels will be the Arizona Diamondbacks led by the pitching troika of Brandon Webb-Dan Haren-Randy Johnson. With strong young bats like Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Conor Jackson, and a deep pitching staff, this team could very well unseat the Dodgers. The pick here is for those Dodgers bats to hold off the DBacks pitching edge, but it could be very close. Behind the division-winning Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers the other contenders in New York, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Arizona should lead the Wildcard charge, and I like the DBacks to take that race. The playoff battles are going to come down to the same keys as they do every year: who is healthy and who is pitching well come October. This is just too close to call right now, but since I went this far already I'll call it a rematch of Phillies-Dodgers for the pennant, and why not pick our Phils to win it again and advance to a World Series rematch with the Rays? They have just as good a shot as anyone else, better than most. Tomorrow's article will be devoted entirely to our World Series champions.

Baseball's Stove Heating Up

For baseball fans the winter can be particularly cold, dark, and long. From the end of the final game of the World Series until Spring Training gets going, there are four months without the game that we must endure. For the most hard core of us, the game never really goes away fully, and this week will find our National Pastime once again in the headlines. This is the week that Major League Baseball holds its 'Winter Meetings' at the Bellagio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. Front-office executives from each of the MLB teams will be present, along with players, their agents, vendors, job-seekers, fans, and media. There will be numerous presentations, meetings, discussions, and social engagements. The biggest function of the Winter Meetings is always the full opening of the 'Hot Stove League', the name coined for the frenzied discussion of player movement via trades and free agent signings. Since the end of the World Series, which this year has made the off-season much more endurable for we Phillies fans thanks to the still-warm glow of our world championship, players and teams have been prepping for this week. The Phils have a pair of key free agent players, outfielder Pat Burrell and starting pitcher Jamie Moyer. The prevailing wisdom is that Burrell's decade-long career with the Fightin's has come to an end, and that the club will not make a big effort to re-sign the slugging left fielder, at least not unless it becomes a last-choice type scenario. Burrell turned 32 years old during the playoffs in October, and is viewed as a player severely limited defensively, a situation that will only worsen as he moves through his 30's. He will be seeking a multi-year contract for a lot of money, and the Phils just don't see him as a prudent investment. They may be right, depending on his actual price, but it will still be sad to see the Series hero leave town. Moyer is another story. The club wants him back for next season, but again age and cost are two considerations. Moyer turned 46 years old just a few weeks ago, and it is very possible that the Phillies squeezed one final productive turn from the seasoned lefty this past year. There are some huge names available as free agents this year including starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia (pictured), Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, and a number of intriguing names such as Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Jon Garland, and future Hall of Famers Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. At the back of the bullpen, closers Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez broke the single-season Saves record this year just in time to hit the free agent market. He leads a group of closers that includes all-time Save leader Trevor Hoffman, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, and Brandon Lyon. Need a hitter? MLB clubs have many here to choose from as well. The two biggest prizes are 1st baseman Mark Teixeira and outfielder Manny Ramirez. Tex is just entering his prime, and is one of the top hitters in the game as well as perhaps the best defensive 1st sacker around. Ramirez is older, but proved last season that he is in great shape and still capable of carrying a team for months at a time. The Phillies found out all about that in the NLCS, when it often seemed like it was their team against Manny alone. The other bats include Burrell, 3rd baseman Casey Blake, shortstop Rafael Furcal, and two of the game's most underrated players in 2nd baseman Orlando Hudson and outfielder Raul Ibanez. The Phillies reportedly have interest in Ibanez, and have also reportedly put a formal offer on the table for Lowe. Whether they will make any deals is questionable. There is much talk that the local nine will be satisfied perhaps with going after a complimentary bat to add outfield depth, and instead will concentrate on signing both Jayson Werth and Ryan Madson to long term deals. They also are rumored to be shopping for one more strong arm to add to what is already one of baseball's best bullpens. Baseball's 'super-agent', Scott Boras, will be highly visible as he and his group represent a number of the top free agents. The dominoes are likely to begin falling with the signing of Sabathia. As soon as this highest rated hurler signs, watch the other deals, both free agent signings and trades, begin to come fast and furious. Of course we could leave the Winter Meetings with just a few signings and deals, but the groundwork will have been laid for others that will come within a week or two, definitely before Christmas. So the next week or so is an important time for baseball teams to improve their rosters. You can catch all of the important Winter Meetings news on ESPN's outstanding program 'Baseball Tonight', which will air special editions from Monday through Thursday at 5pm. The 'Hot Stove' is heating up, warming all baseball fans just as winter's cold begins to set in across the nation.