MLB 2011: National League



Call them what you like, because they've had 'em all hung on them at one time or another over this past winter. The "Phab Four", the "Four Aces", the "Four Horsemen", whatever. Just as long as Charlie Manuel can call on them every fifth day, the Philadelphia Phillies will win their 5th straight N.L. East crown and their 3rd National League pennant in four years before falling in one of the best World Series in decades to the Boston Red Sox. At least that's the call here.

I'll cover the Fightin' Phils and all the specific reasons in my next article here in the coming days. Let's spend some time talking about who will be doing the chasing, and who can take their place should those injury woes become overwhelming. Last year I said that the Atlanta Braves might be the one team that could give the Phils a run for their money in the N.L. East, and I was right on there. In Bobby Cox' final season at the helm, Atlanta stayed with the Phils for most of the season, even leading the division for awhile, and made it into the playoffs as the N.L. Wildcard before bowing to the eventual pennant-winning Giants in a tough playoff series.

The Braves may have an intimidating lineup if everything goes right. If Chipper Jones stays healthy. If rookie 1st sacker Freddie Freeman is a Rookie of the Year contender. If their young rotation and bullpen arms all hold up and produce. With newcomer Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann joining last year's phenom Jason Heyward, the Braves should again contend for the division and playoff races.
I just don't believe that Jones can hold up, and that every single thing will go right in Atlanta. Behind the Braves, the dropoff to the Marlins is significant, and even more so to the sinking Mets and the growing Nats.

Last year in the N.L. Central, I said that Cincinnati was a "dark horse" contender. The Reds got more pitching than I thought they would, and put together a division-winning season before running into Roy Halladay and a veteran Phillies team in the playoffs. I also picked Milwaukee to win the division a year ago. I'm going to do it yet again. The Brewers will edge out Cincy in a final weekend battle for the division crown in what will be the best rest in all of baseball, with both the Cubs and the Cardinals staying in it into the final month. Milwaukee strengthened it's pitching rotation this off-season enough to make their lineup led by free agent-to-be Prince Fielder and all-star outfielder Ryan Braun the favorites. Houston and Pittsburgh will be after-thoughts here.

Out in the N.L. West is where the World Series champion San Francisco Giants reside. Led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and closer Brian Wilson, the GMen overcame a mediocre offense to win it all. Last year, that is exactly the recipe that I said they would need if they wanted to do it, and it happened. It won't happen again. Last year I picked the Colorado Rockies to win this division, and as with the Brew Crew in the Central, I am going to do it yet again. The Rox have a legit MVP contender in Carlos Gonzalez and a ton of talent behind him. In fact, I even think that the Dodgers may have enough to beat out San Fran this time around. Those three should battle hard all season, into the final month, with both Arizona and San Diego lagging way in back of that contending pack.

So let's call it the Phillies, Brewers, and Rockies to win the divisional races. I see five clubs as serious N.L. Wildcard contenders here: the Braves, Reds, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants. I'll say that enough things do go right that Atlanta edges out Cincy for the Wildcard playoff spot. I'll take the Phils and Rockies to reach the NLCS, where Philly's "Four Whatevers" dominate the Rockie hitters and lead the Fightin's into another World Series appearance.

For the National League award winners, I'll go with my pick from a year ago to actually win the MVP race this time, and that would be Milwaukee's Ryan Braun. In the Cy Young race, I'm going to take Cole Hamels pitching out of that #4 spot for Philly. As the Rookie of the Year, let's go with Cincy's flame-throwing reliever (for now) Aroldis Chapman. And as the Manager of the Year, I'll take the Cubs Mike Quade for a surprise contending job. Just what specifically it is that I like about those Phillies, what I think can cause them trouble, and why I think they fall short to Boston in the Fall Classic are all topics for the next post.

MLB 2010: National League

In nearly every major publication and from most every prognosticator you will find that the 3-time defending NL East winning, 2-time defending National League champion, and back-to-back World Series participant Philadelphia Phillies are considered the odds-on favorites to repeat at least where that eastern crown is concerned. In fact, many have them again winning the NL pennant and advancing back to the Series, some predicting they will win.

An admitted lifelong Phillies fan, this absolutely prejudiced observer is calling it that way. Phillies to win their 4th straight NL East crown, 3rd straight National League pennant, and then a 2nd World Series title in 3 years. Did you expect anything else from me under the current circumstances? However, it will be a struggle, there will be highs and lows, they will be pushed. I will cover the Phillies specifically in detail in my next article here in the coming days.

In that NL East race, the team that will push the Phillies the most this year will be...the Atlanta Braves. In fact, some might even find a reason to pick Atlanta to Tomahawk Chop their way back to the top of the division and unseat the Fightin's from their lofty perch. Atlanta's rotation of Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson & Kenshin Kawakami is talented and deep. The lineup is led by declining veteran and future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones and perhaps the best offensive catcher in the NL in Brian McCann. However, the biggest reason that the Braves will challenge the Phils will be the play of tremendous rookie right fielder Jason Heyward. If you haven't heard of him yet, you will, and soon. Bobby Cox has a strong bullpen as well, and in his final season as manager he should push for a playoff spot.

The Florida Marlins have a superstar and NL MVP candidate in shortstop Hanley Ramirez, a pair of exciting young outfielders in Chris Coghlan and Cameron Maybin, a slugging 2nd baseman in Dan Uggla, and a pair of strong starting pitchers in Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. But they lack the overall roster depth to beat out either the Phils or the Braves. The New York Mets are not as deep or dangerous as in previous seasons, and are once again battling injury. The starting pitching behind Johan Santana is just not deep or talented enough either. They should be good enough to stay ahead of the Washington Nationals, but maybe just for one more season. Once Nats uber-prospect starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg arrives this summer, he may help vault them past New York.

In the NL Central the safe and sexy pick are the St. Louis Cardinals. The best hitter on the planet, Albert Pujols, will now be joined for a full season by the support of star outfielder Matt Holliday. Those two and the 1-2 rotation punch of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are formidable, but I don't think it's going to all be enough to repeat at the top of the division. I like the Cards to slip to 2nd place behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew will be led by a pair of genuine MVP candidates of their own in Ryan Braun (pictured) and Prince Fielder. Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf will give them a strong 1-2 rotation punch. I'm calling this a very close race, with an MVP season from Braun providing the difference for the Brewers.

Behind those two top central dogs, I'll call the order: Cincinnati, Chicago, Houston and Pittsburgh. The Reds, like their AL Central and Ohio brothers in Cleveland, have 'dark horse' contender written all over them. If their rotation stays healthy, and if young bats Joey Votto and Jay Bruce produce to their potential, the Reds could surprise and push the top two. The Cubs look like aging underachievers to me, though ace Carlos Zambrano appears to be in shape and motivated. The Astros have talent, especially in it's lineup with Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn, but it is fragile. The Pirates are still just too young, though outfielder Andrew McCutchen will prove one of baseball's most exciting players.

In the NL West, I am looking at perhaps the closest 1-3 race in the league. The Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants (I'll call the finish in that order, since I have to make a prediction) can all win the division here with the right answers to their respective questions. For Colorado, are the young bats at the top of the order in Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler for real? For the LA Dodgers, can Manny Ramirez still be a Hall of Fame offensive force in the middle of the order? In San Fran, can they manufacture enough offense to support what is perhaps the best pitching in the division? In fact, the Arizona Diamondbacks have the roster talent to join this group and make it a 4-team race, but only if they can get ace Brandon Webb healthy early and keep him healthy all year.

I think that the Rockies kids are indeed for real, and that the club will find enough pitching led by starter Ubaldo Jimenez to win the division. The Dodgers will find that Mannywood is shutting down, and that the star slugger will both decline in production and prove to be a disruptive presence in the clubhouse. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson lead a strong and deep Giants' staff, but the 'Kung Fu Panda', Pablo Sandoval, will not have enough offensive help for the team to push past the top two clubs. The health issue will prove to much for Arizona, despite the presence of one of the game's emerging superstars in outfielder Justin Upton. The San Diego Padres will pull up the rear out west, with the biggest item there all season being when, to where, and for what will they trade stud 1st baseman and pending free agent Adrian Gonzalez.

In the playoffs, I think that the Phillies and Brewers will advance to meet one another in the NLCS, repeating their matchup from the 2008 Divisional playoff round which the Phils won by a 3 games to 1 count. I think that the Phils offense will wear down and overwhelm the Brewers pitching, putting Philly into the World Series for the 3rd consecutive season. This would mark the first time since the Stan Musial-led St. Louis Cardinals of 1942-44 that a team from the Senior Curcuit went to 3 straight World Series appearances.

In that World Series, I am going to pick, oh, I don't know, how about those Phillies to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays in a rematch of their 2008 battle. This one could be much closer. The Rays starting pitching is better now, but so is the Phillies. The Rays offense is more experienced now, but then so are the Phillies players. I am  going to give the World Series nod to the combination of Ray Halladay and Cole Hamels, with the Phillies taking it in the full 7-game limit. Another parade down Broad Street for the Fightin' Phils and their fans in early November of 2010.

Picks for the National League award winners are Ryan Braun, the Milwaukee Brewers outfield stud, as the NL Most Valuable Player. The Cy Young Award will go to the Phillies big acquisition, ace righthander Roy Halladay. I will pick outfielder Jason Heyward of the Braves to begin a long and storied career with a Rookie of the Year Award in 2010. However, Heyward will be seriously pushed for that award by starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, taking the honor only because Strasburg will start out with a few weeks in the  minor leagues.

MLB 2009: National League

Unlike the American League, which I covered in yesterday's entry and which is dominated by three teams, the National League pennant race in MLB is wide open. This is both good news and bad for our own Phillies. The bad news is that there are a lot of pretty good teams in the NL that the Phils will have to battle if they want to repeat as National League champions. The good news is that the Phils are one of them, and there is no team that is clearly superior to our defending World Series champs. Tomorrow will be devoted specifically to covering those Phils, but in starting out with the NL East race, let's just say that the Phils match up well with every team, and are better than most. They and the Mets are fairly even, though I still like the Phillies top-to-bottom lineup, their bench, and the depth in their bullpen better than New York. Those Mets will be a strong contender with a lineup that features one of the best young players and leaders in the game in 3rd baseman David Wright and one of the game's most exciting players in speedy shortstop Jose Reyes. Veteran bats like the two Carlos', Delgado and Beltran, provide run-producing pop as well. The rotation is headed by all-world lefty Johan Santana, but has a bunch of question marks after him. The Mets arguably would have won the division the past two years, and possibly a World Series of their own, if they just were able to finish out close games with their bullpen. They finally met that need this off-season by signing record-setting closer Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez, and yet another closer to back him up in J.J. Putz. If they stay healthy, the Mets will not blow many 9th inning leads this time around. But this time the race will not stop at just the Phils and Mets. It seems like every 5-6 years or so the Florida Marlins accumulate enough strong young talent to become serious contenders, and this is possibly one of those years. Their middle infield of 2nd baseman Dan Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez rivals the Phils' own middle of Utley-Rollins as the best in baseball. They have a future all-star in Cameron Maybin about to burst on the scene in their outfield. And their young pitching has depth and talent that is the envy of every team outside of Tampa. The Fish are a couple bats short, and their bullpen is not good enough to overtake the Phils and Mets. But they will make it interesting much of the year, as will the Atlanta Braves. Perhaps no team but the Yankees improved their starting pitching rotation more than the Bravos this off-season. Atlanta added four solid veterans in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, and future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. They team with youngster Jair Jurrjens to give the Braves the best rotation in the east, assuming these guys stay healthy. The Braves lineup has good young parts led by catcher Brian McCann, but the key to contending will be the health of veteran leader Chipper Jones (pictured). If the Braves get a full season out of him, and if both outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson produce, the Braves could seriously challenge the top two teams. I am going to call it in this order: Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals. In the NL Central, most prognosticators are picking the Chicago Cubs, as well as installing the Cubbies as favorites for the NL pennant and a trip to the World Series. There are plenty of reasons to like them starting with a talented and varied offense that includes Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovanny Soto. In the off-season the Cubs signed mercurial outfielder Milton Bradley. I am going to install him as a dark-horse MVP candidate, because if he can stay healthy he has the talent to be a difference-maker for this team. The Cubs have depth and talent in both their rotation and bullpen, but that rotation could easily be set back by injuries. If Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano hold up, the Cubs should win the NL Central. But hot on their heels could well be either or both of the Milwaukee Brewers, whose offense led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun matches up with anyone, or the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have the mighty Albert Pujols back and at full strength, and that is truly scary since he won the NL MVP a year ago during a season in which he was injured. They also get back from injury a pair of arms in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and these guys staying healthy all year will be the key to the Cards staying with the Cubbies. Out in the NL West we can just refer to this as 'Manny Land', because the Dodgers' superstar and future Hall of Famer will be the key to this race. If his head is on straight and he is at full health, Manny will be Manny, and he will lead Joe Torre's troops to another division title. With a vastly improved middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal, and with returning young bats in Russ Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, this lineup could contend even without Ramirez. Beyond young ace Chad Billingsley, who still has to prove he can carry that mantle, and strong closer Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers pitching staff is uncharacteristically full of question marks. Right on their heels will be the Arizona Diamondbacks led by the pitching troika of Brandon Webb-Dan Haren-Randy Johnson. With strong young bats like Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Conor Jackson, and a deep pitching staff, this team could very well unseat the Dodgers. The pick here is for those Dodgers bats to hold off the DBacks pitching edge, but it could be very close. Behind the division-winning Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers the other contenders in New York, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Arizona should lead the Wildcard charge, and I like the DBacks to take that race. The playoff battles are going to come down to the same keys as they do every year: who is healthy and who is pitching well come October. This is just too close to call right now, but since I went this far already I'll call it a rematch of Phillies-Dodgers for the pennant, and why not pick our Phils to win it again and advance to a World Series rematch with the Rays? They have just as good a shot as anyone else, better than most. Tomorrow's article will be devoted entirely to our World Series champions.