Showing posts with label World Series. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Series. Show all posts

Thursday, March 24, 2011

MLB 2011: National League



Call them what you like, because they've had 'em all hung on them at one time or another over this past winter. The "Phab Four", the "Four Aces", the "Four Horsemen", whatever. Just as long as Charlie Manuel can call on them every fifth day, the Philadelphia Phillies will win their 5th straight N.L. East crown and their 3rd National League pennant in four years before falling in one of the best World Series in decades to the Boston Red Sox. At least that's the call here.

I'll cover the Fightin' Phils and all the specific reasons in my next article here in the coming days. Let's spend some time talking about who will be doing the chasing, and who can take their place should those injury woes become overwhelming. Last year I said that the Atlanta Braves might be the one team that could give the Phils a run for their money in the N.L. East, and I was right on there. In Bobby Cox' final season at the helm, Atlanta stayed with the Phils for most of the season, even leading the division for awhile, and made it into the playoffs as the N.L. Wildcard before bowing to the eventual pennant-winning Giants in a tough playoff series.

The Braves may have an intimidating lineup if everything goes right. If Chipper Jones stays healthy. If rookie 1st sacker Freddie Freeman is a Rookie of the Year contender. If their young rotation and bullpen arms all hold up and produce. With newcomer Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann joining last year's phenom Jason Heyward, the Braves should again contend for the division and playoff races.
I just don't believe that Jones can hold up, and that every single thing will go right in Atlanta. Behind the Braves, the dropoff to the Marlins is significant, and even more so to the sinking Mets and the growing Nats.

Last year in the N.L. Central, I said that Cincinnati was a "dark horse" contender. The Reds got more pitching than I thought they would, and put together a division-winning season before running into Roy Halladay and a veteran Phillies team in the playoffs. I also picked Milwaukee to win the division a year ago. I'm going to do it yet again. The Brewers will edge out Cincy in a final weekend battle for the division crown in what will be the best rest in all of baseball, with both the Cubs and the Cardinals staying in it into the final month. Milwaukee strengthened it's pitching rotation this off-season enough to make their lineup led by free agent-to-be Prince Fielder and all-star outfielder Ryan Braun the favorites. Houston and Pittsburgh will be after-thoughts here.

Out in the N.L. West is where the World Series champion San Francisco Giants reside. Led by Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and closer Brian Wilson, the GMen overcame a mediocre offense to win it all. Last year, that is exactly the recipe that I said they would need if they wanted to do it, and it happened. It won't happen again. Last year I picked the Colorado Rockies to win this division, and as with the Brew Crew in the Central, I am going to do it yet again. The Rox have a legit MVP contender in Carlos Gonzalez and a ton of talent behind him. In fact, I even think that the Dodgers may have enough to beat out San Fran this time around. Those three should battle hard all season, into the final month, with both Arizona and San Diego lagging way in back of that contending pack.

So let's call it the Phillies, Brewers, and Rockies to win the divisional races. I see five clubs as serious N.L. Wildcard contenders here: the Braves, Reds, Cubs, Dodgers and Giants. I'll say that enough things do go right that Atlanta edges out Cincy for the Wildcard playoff spot. I'll take the Phils and Rockies to reach the NLCS, where Philly's "Four Whatevers" dominate the Rockie hitters and lead the Fightin's into another World Series appearance.

For the National League award winners, I'll go with my pick from a year ago to actually win the MVP race this time, and that would be Milwaukee's Ryan Braun. In the Cy Young race, I'm going to take Cole Hamels pitching out of that #4 spot for Philly. As the Rookie of the Year, let's go with Cincy's flame-throwing reliever (for now) Aroldis Chapman. And as the Manager of the Year, I'll take the Cubs Mike Quade for a surprise contending job. Just what specifically it is that I like about those Phillies, what I think can cause them trouble, and why I think they fall short to Boston in the Fall Classic are all topics for the next post.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

MLB 2011: American League


I wonder how Philadelphia Phillies fans would feel about Terry Francona (above) managing his club to a World Series title for the 3rd time? Especially if this time those Boston Red Sox defeat the Fightin' Phils for the world championship, as I am predicting is going to happen in late October of 2011.

The American League's East Division is where you can find the greatest blood feud in baseball history, that between the Bosox and their hated southern neighbors, the dynastic New York Yankees. Both clubs have had recent success, with the Red Sox winning the World Series in 2004 and 2007, and the Yanks winning it all in 2009. For this coming season, I am picking the two clubs to battle for the A.L. East crown, and for Boston to come out on top.

The Red Sox struggled through an injury-marred 2010 and missed the post-season. But over this past winter the club was reinforced with a pair of game-changing offensive talents in 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez and left fielder Carl Crawford. AGonz will bang the ball all over Fenway Park, and Crawford's speed paired with that of Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Bosox' game something new with which to challenge opponents. Add in 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia, 3rd sacker Kevin Youkilis, and veteran right fielder J.D. Drew and Boston has some of the best offensive talent in the game. On the mound the Sox are deep and talented in both their rotation and in the bullpen, with a tremendous mix of veterans such as Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon and kids such as Jon Lester and Daniel Bard. This is, given reasonable health, clearly the team to beat.

The Yankees lineup is aging in spots, particularly on the left side of the infield where future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez perform. But both of these players will be back and should perform well in the coming season, and Jeter should become the first Yankee in history to reach the 3,000 career hits milestone. With Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, this may be the best all-around infield in baseball. The Yanks appear to be a little short on outfield pop, and their starting pitching has serious depth problems.

However, the bullpen has the best closer in baseball history in Mariano Rivera being setup now by one of the best in recent years, Rafael Soriano. The Yanks also now have shutdown lefty relievers, and have plenty of cash with which to eventually shore up any weaknesses. They will contend once again.

In 2 of the past 3 seasons, it has not been Boston or New York that has won this tough division. Instead, the Tampa Bay Rays have vaulted past both and finished on top. However, the small-market Rays began to lose talent to free agency this off-season, including Crawford to Boston, and do not appear to have the firepower beyond all-star 3rd sacker Evan Longoria to stay with those top two dogs this time around. The Rays pitching should keep them ahead of both Buck Showalter's improving Baltimore Orioles and a slugging Toronto Blue Jays squad to round out the A.L. East standings.

In the A.L. Central, I can see a case being made for any one of three clubs winning this race, but I am going to put my money down on the Chicago White Sox at this point. Manager Ozzie Guillen has a multi-talented club with a strong bullpen. If they get any kind of reasonable production out of Jake Peavy, they may win the division comfortably. Even if not, they still get my nod to win in a squeaker over the Minnesota Twins. The Twinkies are always dangerous, but may be facing some health issues with franchise cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. If both of those guys find some way to get and stay healthy the majority of the season, look for the Twins to again be serious division title contenders.

The team that might surprise here in the A.L. Central is the Detroit Tigers. Skipper Jim Leyland feels he has talent and depth. He just might have enough to make a run at the club's first title since moving to the Central Division in 2008. Since reaching the 2006 World Series as the division's first-ever Wildcard team, Leyland has generally had the club in some form of contention. It will be largely up to the pitching staff if this current club wants to return to the post-season. Both Cleveland and Kansas City appear to be after-thoughts, although before the year is out we may begin to see the first signs of the Royals' top-rated farm system bring some long overdue excitement back to KC.

Out in the American League West Division we find baseball's only 4-team alignment. Legendary pitcher Nolan Ryan fronted a bid to buy the Texas Rangers last season, and his group emerged victorious in that battle. His team then emerged victorious in the division and playoff battles, reaching the World Series for the first time in franchise history. It says here that despite losing ace Cliff Lee, the Rangers and A.L. MVP Josh Hamilton will still have enough to hold off the always dangerous Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Halos still look to be clearly the only team that has the firepower to keep up with Texas. The Oakland A's have some strong young pitching, enough to perhaps keep things interesting on their side of the Bay for awhile this summer, but neither they nor the Seattle Mariners should provide much competition in the end.

So with Boston, Chicago, and Texas all picked as divisional winners, the only race left would be for the A.L. Wildcard spot. I see three clubs as serious contenders for that, and would rank them in this order: the Yankees, the Angels, and finally the Twins. The dark horse contender team is the Detroit Tigers, with the Tampa Bay Rays also being a potential longshot playoff contender if all of their questions are answered right. I am going to call it a "Battle of the Sox" in the ALCS, with Boston's red downing Chicago's white, and with the Bosox then taking home their 3rd World Series title in 8 years.

For the award winners, lets go with Adrian Gonzalez of Boston as the A.L. MVP, with Tampa Bay's David Price as the Cy Young Award winner, and with the White Sox' outstanding young lefty arm Chris Sale as the A.L. Rookie of the Year. Guillen will win the Manager of the Year for guiding those Pale Hose to the Central crown. Aside from the real battles between the contenders, real baseball fans should pay attention late in the season to both Baltimore and Kansas City, as each young club should be showcasing some excellent kids who may bring those two former contenders back to the glory days some season soon.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Eight Men Out, One Man In

Today is the 90th anniversary of a landmark day in the history of Major League Baseball. On this date in 1921, the owners elected Kenesaw 'Mountain' Landis to the newly created position of Commissioner. His job, to do whatever it took to restore confidence in the American public following the infamous "Black Sox" scandal of 1919.

The reasons for the creation of the position and for Landis' specific hiring constitute an important and interesting chapter in the history of America's pastime. The National League was founded in 1876, replacing the old National Association that had been formed in 1871 to begin some type of organization for the blossoming sport on a national level.

The American League was founded in 1900 from origins as the Western League which had been itself formed in 1893. In 1901, the A.L. elevated itself to major league status and became direct competition for the N.L.'s senior circuit. In 1903, the champions of the two leagues met in the first World Series, a competition that became permanent in 1905.

In 1919, the A.L.'s Chicago White Sox were considered the best team in the game at that time, led by one of the true early legends in the sport, 'Shoeless' Joe Jackson. The Sox had won the World Series of 1917, and were prohibitive favorites in this World Series against the N.L.'s Cincinnati Reds, but the Reds ended up winning what was then a best-of-9 games event, 5 games to 3.

During that 1919 series, rumors began to surface that a "fix" was in, that professional gamblers had successfully paid off some of the White Sox key players to "throw" the series in the Reds favor. These allegations and rumors continued into and through the 1920 season, and a grand jury was finally convened to investigate the matter. The grand jury convened as the Sox were again battling for the A.L. pennant. When Jackson and a teammate, the team's best pitcher Eddie Cicotte, confessed their involvement to the grand jury, Sox owner Charles Comiskey suspended 8 players believed to have been involved, costing them the 1920 pennant.

A highly publicized trial of the 8 players who were allegedly involved took place. One young boy is famously quoted as approaching Jackson with the plea "Say it ain't so, Joe. Say it ain't so."
Key evidence, including the signed confessions of Cicotte and Jackson went missing. Both men recanted these confessions. There were numerous scandalous incidents during the proceedings. In the end, the jury found the players "not guilty", and it was presumed that they would simply continue on with their careers.

However, Major League Baseball was not happy. The legal jury verdict was obviously a result of a combination of the farcical trial incidents and some hero-worship among the jurors. The owners knew that gamblers had their hands in the outcome of some games almost since the inception of the Major Leagues, and needed to eliminate that influence and win back the integrity of the game in order to keep the respect and interest of the increasingly skeptical fans.

To this end, the owners decided that they needed someone strong, forceful and popular to lead the game's efforts. Prior to that point, administration of the sport such as arbiting disputes among owners was done by a National Commission created as a part of the 1903 peace agreement between the N.L. and A.L. The NC was made up of the President's of both leagues, as well as a Commission chairman.

The owners choice for the Commission chairman job was none other than Landis, an Illinois federal judge who had presided over a famous anti-trust case regarding Standard Oil, and who had popularly presided over the trials of numerous Socialists who were trying to influence the United States in a variety of ways, including hindering the draft efforts for the American forces in World War I. Landis agreed to accept the post, but not as then constructed. He insisted on an all-powerful position as sole Commissioner of Baseball.

The owners agreed, giving him full authority to act, as he demanded, "in the best interests of baseball" as relating to any matter. He was appointed to the post of Commissioner on the same day that the White Sox players were convicted, and the following day Landis made his now legendary proclamation:

"Regardless of the verdict of juries, no player who throws a ball game, no player who undertakes or promises to throw a ball game, no player who sits in confidence with a bunch of crooked ballplayers and gamblers where the ways and means of throwing a game are discussed and does not promptly tell his club about it, will ever play professional baseball." 

The 8 players were permanently banned from baseball with this statement. Two other players who were peripherally involved were also eventually banned. The cheating members of that 1919 team became nicknamed the "Black Sox" by the media. The entire incident was famously immortalized in the popular 1988 film "Eight Men Out", which itself was based on a book Eliot Asinof titled "Eight Men Out: The Black Sox and the 1919 World Series."

The owners thought that following his role in resolving the scandal, that Judge Landis would ease into light activity in a semi-retirement role. However, Landis had other ideas, and using his popularity with both the public and the press, he ended up presiding over the game for the next quarter century. Among the many improvements to the game during his reign were an end to hooliganism by many player, the negotiation of broadcasting contracts as first radio and then television began to cover the sport, and negotiating ends to some negative labor practices by owners. Landis also infamously perpetuated the segregation of baseball throughout his reign, and severely restricted MLB control over minor league baseball.

Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis (pictured above with Hall of Famer Ty Cobb) was undoubtedly the right man at the right time in dealing with the Black Sox scandal in particular and the issue of overthrowing the gamblers influence and returning the integrity of the game of professional baseball. He was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame just one month after his death, and the MVP Award in both leagues is officially named after him.

The aftermath of the infamous 1919 World Series saw eight men, the notorious White Sox players, out of the game permanently and one man, the Commissioner of Baseball, first in the person of Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis, introduced into the game. Both results would have to be considered as victories in the end for all true fans of America's national pastime.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A Decade of Parity and History

In western historical terms, there was no year '0', so most people realize that an official decade truly runs from the year ending in '1' through the 10th year.

This means that 2001 opened the true first year, and the recent 2010 season ended the final year of the first decade of the 21st century.

For all of the talk about payrolls in baseball and a fear of competitive imbalance, here is the bottom line fact as it relates to that recently completed first decade: 9 different teams won the World Series.

The only franchise that was able to win multiple World Series titles was the one that opened the decade with a supposed jinx or curse, one that hadn't won in 90 years. That franchise was the Boston Red Sox, who won in 2004 and then again took the crown in 2007.

League or Divisional assignments didn't matter this past decade either. The two leagues evenly split the World Series victories at 5 apiece, and teams from every division won titles. The Phillies ('08) and Marlins ('03) from the N.L. East, the Cardinals ('06) from the N.L. Central, the Diamondbacks ('01) and Giants ('10) from the N.L. West gave the National League 5 titles. In addition to Boston's two titles, the Yankees ('09) joined from the A.L. East, the White Sox ('05) won from the A.L. Central, and the Angels ('02) from the A.L. West to give the American League 5 titles as well.

The Yankees did begin the decade by dominating their A.L. East division, winning the first 6 crowns. But Boston won in '07, and the Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of the last 3 seasons. In the A.L. Central, the small-market Minnesota Twins won 6 of the 10 division titles, with the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox winning twice each. In the A.L. West, the Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels won 5 crowns, the Oakland A's took 3, and both Seattle and Texas won once each. In addition, the Detroit Tigers made the playoffs as a Wildcard team during the decade.

In the N.L., the Phillies have won the last 4 straight titles, and the Atlanta Braves won the decade's first 5 crowns. In between, the New York Mets won once.
 The N.L. Central has seen the Saint Louis Cardinals take 5 titles, with the Chicago Cubs winning 3, and with Houston and Cincinnati each winning once. The N.L. West has been the definition of parity with the LA Dodgers (3), Arizona Diamondbacks (3), San Francisco Giants (2) and San Diego Padres (2) all taking titles. Add playoff Wildcard appearances by Florida, Colorado and Milwaukee, and the N.L. has been even more up for grabs than their A.L. counterparts.

The true bottom line for building and keeping a winning, title-contending team over the past decade has not so much been the 'bottom line' of finance, but the always decisive bottom line of talent evaluation and sound decision-making. A strong organization with responsible ownership, the right talent evaluators, skilled coaches, and fearless management makes the final difference almost every time. That was proven over the past decade, despite the varied revenue opportunities of baseball's franchises.

The decade brought us incredible, historical moments. In that first year, there was the response to the attacks on America on September 11th, 2001. Baseball rightly took a step back by cancelling all games for a week. It also came back at the correct time. On Monday night, September 17th, I was blessed and humbled to be in the stands at Veteran's Stadium in Philadelphia with my wife and a capacity crowd as the Phillies met the Atlanta Braves on that first night back. A night of flag-waving, tear-flowing patriotism that signalled we would not be beaten, would not be laid low. We would carry on, strongly and proudly. It was one of the most memorable evenings in my entire life.

The post-9/11 World Series that year featured the Yankees, carrying the prayers and hearts of not only New Yorkers but of many in America with them, against the Arizona Diamondbacks featuring the incredible 1-2 pitching punch of Curt Schilling and Randy 'The Big Unit' Johnson. The Yanks were ultimately beaten in one of the most memorable series of all-time when Arizona's Luis Gonzalez blooped a series-winning, bases loaded single off legendary closer Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th inning of Game #7.

That 2001 baseball season was also highlighted by Barry Bonds record-setting 73 homeruns. In 2002, Bonds would be around for the Fall Classic when for the 2nd straight season the World Series went the full 7-game distance. And for the 2nd consecutive season it was a franchise winning it's first-ever championship as the Anaheim Angels, to the crack of their fans red 'boom sticks' and the antics of a scoreboard controlled 'Rally Monkey' rallied from a 3 games to 2 deficit, and a 5-0 deficit late in Game #6, to defeat Bonds and the San Francisco Giants.

Those would be the last two World Series of the decade that would go the distance. In fact, 6 of the last 7 World Series have been decided in 5 games or less. In 2003, the Florida Marlins won perhaps the decade's least likely title, upsetting the Yankees in 6 games behind the stellar pitching of young ace Josh Beckett.

The 2004 season provided true baseball history. First came the ALCS, where the Yankees bolted ahead of the Red Sox to a 3 games to none lead. The Bosox then began the greatest comeback in MLB history, taking a pair of extra-innings contests to get back into the series. In Game #6, Curt Schilling miraculously took the mound, overcoming a serious ankle injury with guts, gumption, and some help from the medical staff in what would become known in baseball lore as the now-legendary "Bloody Sock" game (pictured.) He pitched them to the series tie, and the Bosox throttled the Yanks in the 7th game, completing baseball's first-ever and still only rally from an 0-3 series deficit. The Sox went on to sweep the World Series and put to rest the ghost of the 9-decades old "Curse of the Bambino".

In 2005 another long-running streak of futility came to an end as the Chicago White Sox would win their first World Series crown in a half-century. Led by colorful manager Ozzie Guillen, the Chisox swept the Houston Astros for the title. The Astros were participating in the first-ever World Series for the franchise. It remains their only appearance. As of the end of the decade, neither the Seattle Mariners or Washington Nationals (formerly Montreal Expos) franchises have ever appeared in the World Series. In addition to Houston, Seattle and Washington, the San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers have yet to win a World Series.

The Saint Louis Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, led by Albert Pujols, who was perhaps the decade's greatest individual player. Pujols was the NL's Rookie of the Year in 2001 as the decade began. He was an All-Star every year except 2002. He was a 3-time NL MVP, 6-time winner of the Silver Slugger Award, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner, and won homerun, batting and rbi titles during the decade. He slugged 408 homeruns, ripped 1,900 total hits, and batted a lofty .331 over the totality of the decade. By decade's end, he would be selected by both Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News as the sport's 'Player of the Decade' honoree.

After the Red Sox were led by manager Terry Francona to their 2nd World Series crown of the decade in 2007, it was Francona's old team, the Philadelphia Phillies, who would put an entire city's futility to an end in the 2008 World Series. With the weight of a quarter-century of pro sports teams not winning a league championship in any major sport, by far the longest such streak of futility in the nation, the Phillies used a homegrown core of players in Jimmy 'JRoll' Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Pat Burrell, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Madson, and NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels to end the streak.

The Phillies had a 3 games to 1 lead on the young and talented Tampa Bay Rays heading into Game #5 at Citizens Bank Park. The game began under a threat of rain, and that threat turned to reality as the game got underway. By the middle innings the night had deteriorated into monsoon-like conditions. With the two teams tied and the field reduced to water and mud piles, the umpires finally called the proceedings off and delayed the game.

What then ensued was a 48-hour period where baseball waited out the suddenly rainy period that had deluged the Philly area. Finally, after that 2-day delay, the game was resumed as the Phillies came to bat in the bottom of the 6th with the score tied at 1-1. The Phils retook the lead, Tampa tied it again, the Phils went ahead yet again and took a 3-2 lead into the top of the 9th. When Brad Lidge finally slipped a changeup past Tampa Bay's Eric Hinske and into Ruiz' glove for a final strike, the Phils closer sunk to his knees as legendary broadcaster Harry Kalas exulted: "The Philadelphia Phillies are 2010 world champions of baseball!"

The Phillies would return to the World Series the following year led by mostly the same group, but bolstered by a pair of big-game pitching pickups in Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez. But there they met a formidable New York Yankees club that had been bolstered themselves by major free agent acquisitions Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia. Together with multi-talented and controversial 3rd baseman Alex 'ARod' Rodriguez, perhaps the decades 2nd greatest player behind only Albert Pujols, and their own homegrown core of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano and Andy Pettitte, the Yanks took down the Phils in six tough games.

As the decade has come to a close over the past year, one thing that has stood out to many has been a clear changing of the guard. The decade began with players like Ken Griffey Jr., Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar and others dominating play. But most of those players were now either gone or on their way out.

The new guard of players making their debuts at the Major League level over the past few seasons is perhaps defined and highlighted right now by the smallish, mop-haired, snaggle-toothed pitcher with the funky delivery who starts every 5th game for the San Francisco Giants. Righthander Tim 'the Freak' Lincecum won the National League Cy Young Award as the league's top pitcher in each of his first two seasons of 2008 and 2009. In 2010 he would take it a step further, leading his Giants to their first World Series championship in more than a half-century, the first ever in the 'City by the Bay' since the club moved from New York in the 1950's.

The past decade has brought us through many big stories and emotional moments. From New York and 9/11, to the controversy of Barry Bonds record-setting achievements, through the Congressional hearings on substance abuse in baseball at mid-decade, to the game finally achieving and enjoying a pair of World Baseball Classic tournaments that brought the best players from all over the planet together under the banners and for the glory of their individual nations, the game has rolled on and grown stronger. It is perhaps fitting that one of the decade's greatest stories, and greatest players, led his nation to victories in both of those WBC tournaments as Ichiro Suzuki and Japan took home both titles.

Ichiro was just one of the big stars of the decade that included the previously mentioned greatness of Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. There were so many others at the plate besides those already mentioned, from Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in Boston to the 'M & M Boys", Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, in Minnesota. The bats of Vlad Guerrero, Jeff Kent, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Chipper Jones, and others boomed. Besides the previously noted, there were the arms of Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Tim Hudson, Jamey Moyer and Trevor Hoffman befuddling and blowing away the batters.

The beginning of the next decade looms off in the distance of the ending of the long winter ahead. Where will it lead us? Will phenoms like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper help Washington to finally get to the World Series at some point in the next ten years? Can the Mariners finally get there? What kinds of numbers will Albert Pujols end up with? Will A-Rod break Bonds all-time homerun record, and will it be considered as tainted as Bonds own breaking of Hank Aaron's career record was by many? Will Bonds himself reach the Hall of Fame? All of these, and so many others that we can't now even imagine, await us in baseball's next decade.

Saturday, January 30, 2010

1980: Not A Kid Anymore


All this year at my Facebook page, which you can view from the link in the sidebar here at my website by joining up yourself and 'friend'-ing me, I am taking a daily trip back in time to the 1980's. Each month I am highlighting a different year chronologically, and this month have been featuring the music, tv, movies, and important events of the first year of the decade: 1980.

In 1980 the world changed, both in my own individual life and the world at large, in some of the most important and influential ways it ever would. Just one year earlier, as 1979 dawned, I was a 17-year old high school senior living in an apartment in South Philly with my dad and brother. Little did I know how much a life could change in less than a year.

I had been dating a girl, Anne Jacobs, ever since meeting her down at the Jersey shore in Wildwood, New Jersey during the late summer of 1976. We overcame the fact that I lived in South Philly without a car and she lived out in the Delaware County suburb of Prospect Park to become high school sweethearts.

Anne was a year behind me in school, and so while I was finishing up my senior year and preparing to graduate from St. John Neumann high school in South Philadelphia during the first half of 1979, she was still just a junior at Archbishop Prendergast high school out in Drexel Hill, Delaware County.

It was at some point in the late spring of '79 that we began to realize something big might be up. There were increasingly unmistakable signs to us that Anne had become pregnant, and by the early summer we knew it was true. We told our parents at the end of that summer, and I put my LaSalle University plans aside to go out and find a job.

In the fall of 1979 I landed a job as a messenger clerk with the old First Pennsylvania Bank, beginning a decade-long career in the banking world. Anne and I, with the necessary permission from our parents since we were still under 18 years old, got married on November 7th that year, and I moved in with her family.

This is where 1980 opened for me, vastly different from a year earlier. Married at just 18 years of age, living in the suburbs, taking a train in to work everyday in downtown Philadelphia. And then in early February, a day before my own father would turn 40 years old, Anne gave birth to a beautiful baby girl who we named "Christine", adding 'Dad' to my new roles in life.

There is no way that I will ever encourage any teenager to get pregnant. It is one of the most difficult things to go through, trying to properly raise a child while you are still very much one yourself in so many ways. But I also cannot deny the love and joy that Chrissy brought into my life beginning on that day. In a few days from now she will turn 30 years old, and is now a 2-time mother herself. Where has all that time gone?

That would not turn out to be the last major domestic change in my life during 1980, however. We tried to live with Anne's family, but trying to make your own way as parents and a couple is difficult enough without having the dynamic of living under the same roof as people who still treat you like kids. By the fall we had gotten our own apartment at the corner of American and Ritner Streets, and thus began trying to give it a go out on our own back in my old South Philly stomping grounds.

One of my favorite little life stories comes from February 22nd of that year. Just as this year, 1980 was a Winter Olympics year, and the American hockey team made up of young college kids had been stunning the world by slipping through the tournament undefeated. Looming ahead of them was a date with Cold War destiny.

On that Friday the American kids were poised to take on the goliath hockey juggernaut from the Soviet Union in an Olympic semi-final game at Lake Placid, New York. Just two weeks earlier, the Russians had blitzed the U.S. by a 10-3 score in a pre-Olympics exhibition. Then they rolled over five opponents by a combined score of 55-11 to reach this point in the tournament.

The day before the matchup, New York Times columnist Dave Anderson wrote: "Unless the ice melts, or unless the United States team or another team performs a miracle, as did the American squad in 1960, the Russians are expected to easily win the Olympic gold medal for the sixth time in the last seven tournaments."

No one really believed that miracle was likely, but the young American team had captured my and the nation's hearts and imaginations with their dramatic play. The game against the Soviets was going to take place during the day, but would be televised that night in prime time by the ABC network. Remember, these were the pre-ESPN domination days with no 24-hour news coverage of events.

I resolved to stay away from any radios or television during my work day at the bank, which in those days proved easy. I went home with no knowledge of what had happened in the game and was prepared to grab some dinner and then settle in to watch the drama of the U.S.-Soviet hockey game.

While I ate, excited about the upcoming game, Anne walked in to the kitchen of her parents house on 11th Avenue and said matter-of-factly "How about the Americans beating the Russians in hockey today?!"

I'll leave it to your imaginations the phrase that immediately raced through my stunned mind at the revelation of the game result that I had been successfully avoiding all day. Ouch. Priceless.

With my excitement ruined and my enthusiasm tempered by the knowledge of what was going to happen, I settled in that evening to enjoy the spectacle of what has become known to history as the 'Miracle on Ice' in the American squad's 4-3 epic upset of the Soviet hockey team: "Do you believe in miracles? Yes!"

In the larger world during the first year of the 1980's, the Carter Presidency continued to deteriorate as the Iranian hostage crisis droned on and on. His candidacy for the Democratic Party nomination received a serious threat from Teddy Kennedy, who I stood just a few feet away from during an early spring campaign stop in Philly that year.

Kennedy would receive my first-ever vote in a Presidential primary, but would lose a hard-fought nomination process to Carter. Later in the year, the Reagan Revolution began with the election to the Presidency of Ronald Reagan, the greatest American President of the past century, but one who I simply did not appreciate or support at the time.

During the year of 1980 we Americans would become introduced to or more familiar with people and topics such as Abscam, Voyager, Ayatollah, Olympic boycott, Rosie Ruiz, Mt. Saint Helens, Yoda, CNN, Solidarity. We would all end the year sobbing over the murder of John Lennon while asking the question "Who shot J.R.?"

Philadelphia was the capital of the sports world in 1980. That spring, the Flyers were beaten in overtime of the 6th game of the Stanley Cup Finals on a controversial goal by Bob Nystrom of the New Islanders. The Isles appeared to be clearly offsides on the winning play, but the refs blew the call. Had the Flyers won, they would have tied the series and sent it back to the Spectrum for a decisive 7th game.

Also that spring, the 76ers advanced to the NBA Finals before succumbing in six games thanks to a herculean performance from Lakers rookie Magic Johnson, who filled in for injured all-star center Kareem-Abdul Jabbar and single-handedly kept the Sixers from sending that championship to a deciding game.

The Philadelphia Eagles had a season to remember that fall and winter, finishing 12-4 and winning the NFC East under coach Dick Vermiel. The Birds finished tied with the Dallas Cowboys, who beat them in the regular season finale by a 35-27 score, but won the tie-breaker for the division title. They would advance to make the franchise' first-ever appearance in the Super Bowl in January of 1981.

And then there were the 1980 Philadelphia Phillies. One of the best teams in baseball since 1975, the Phils were repeatedly disappointed and disappointing in making playoff appearances in 1976, 1977, and 1978. The 1980 team was considered by some to be getting a little old-in-the-tooth, but the veterans fought to yet another division title.

In what many still believe to be the greatest NLCS in baseball history, the Phils edged past the Houston Astros and advanced to face the great George Brett and the Kansas City Royals in the World Series. In the dramatic finale to the 6th game at Veteran's Stadium, Tug McGraw struck out Willie Wilson to preserve a 4-1 win and give the long-suffering franchise' it's first-ever world championship.

I remember clearly watching the game in our little South Philly apartment that was full of friends for the game. We spilled into the streets after the victory, and I headed up to Broad Street with some to enjoy the victory celebration. We worked our way towards the Vet, and it was in the midst of that joyous celebration of the championship just won by Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Larry Bowa and crew that my life very nearly changed forever once again.

I was standing on Broad Street just north of Snyder Avenue in the middle of what was a sea of celebratory humanity, and at the same time there were vehicles still trying to leave the area as well. Somehow I got squeezed by the crowd into the small space between two cars slowly edging their way along. Trying to avoid the crowds, one of the cars kept edging towards the other, pinning my legs between the two.

I started to bang on the hood and windows of the two cars as my legs got squeezed tighter, and just in time felt the release of pressure as the drivers realized what was happening and eased off me. That close to getting my legs crushed while celebrating a life long dream of a World Series victory!

1980 was absolutely a year of change for me, for the country, and for the world. It was a year of beginnings and challenges, of frustrations and celebrations, of defeat and victory, and of joys and sorrows. It was a year that not many others to follow would be able to equal for it's quantity of high drama. And it was ultimately the first year of my life in which I was not a kid anymore.

BORN 1980: Christine Veasey, Erin Mooney Bates, Justin Timberlake, Elin Nordegren, Zooey Deschanel, Robinho, Nick Carter, Gilbert Arenas, Albert Pujols, Eli Manning, Adam Lambert, Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez, Natalie Gulbis, Andre Iguodala, Joe Flacco, Mischa Barton

DIED 1980: Jimmy Durante, Paul Lynde, Paul 'Bear' Bryant, Ray Kroc, Johnny Weissmuler, Jackie Wilson, Donna Reed, L. Ron Hubbard, Ray 'the Scarecrow' Bolger, 'Pistol' Pete Maravich, Hirohito, Ted Bundy, John Lennon

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Happy Halladay


Just six weeks have passed since the New York Yankees extended their baseball dynasty with a 27th World Series championship by dethroning our own Phillies in six games. With the change from fall to winter have also come changes to the Fightin' Phils roster.

In the last few weeks, and as the Christmas holiday fast approaches, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and his management team have shown that they are not at all satisfied having won the 2008 title and nearly won a second.

Early this week the Phillies successfully concluded what was a 4-month pursuit of the acknowledged top pitcher in baseball when they completed a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays that brought Roy Halladay to town.

The cost for Halladay was significant. He gets a 3-year deal that likely flips to 4 years at a salary of about $20 million per year. The cost also includes the package of prospects sent to the Jays led by pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Michael Taylor. Both are considered future major league regulars by most baseball observers, with Drabek a potential future rotation ace.

Also dealt to Toronto was catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, meaning that the Phils have now dealt away their top two catching prospects in the last few months. The other was Lou Marson, sent away to Cleveland back at the 2009 trade deadline as part of the Cliff Lee deal which also included pitching prospects Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp.

Perhaps the one annoying part of the deal for some Phillies fans was the linked trade of Lee to Seattle in exchange for prospects. Some of the fan base thought the Phils could have kept both Halladay and Lee, giving them one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball next year with Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and J.A. Happ.

However, Amaro knows his business. With the boatload of prospects lost by the Phillies minor league system in the two deals with Cleveland and Toronto over the past few months, that system was seriously depleted of top level talent. When Seattle was willing to part with a former #1 draft pick and highly regarded prospect arm in Phillipe Aumont, the Phils jumped to send Lee back to the American League.

Looking at the overall totality of the deals, the Phils got 3+ strong pitching months from Lee, performances without which the team likely doesn't return to the World Series, all for marginal or far-off prospects from Cleveland. Then they basically recouped the talent level on those prospects in flipping Lee to Seattle this week.

While the club theoretically could have kept both Halladay and Lee for this coming year, there was little likelihood that they could have met Lee's salary demands beyond 2010. So they jumped on a deal being offered right now that included strong prospects coming back to them.

Just yesterday the Phillies announced that they were excercising their 2011 contract option on shortstop and team leader Jimmy Rollins. This means that the club has contracts in place with 7 of their 8 position players through that season at least, with only Jayson Werth likely to test the free agent waters after the coming season.

The salary certainty with Halladay as an ace now in place, the Phillies can turn their attention to decisions and negotiations involving Werth next year and players like Rollins, Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson and others in the following year. The big Halladay deal was not the only move that the Phillies have made to improve this off-season.

Another key for management was rebuilding the team's bench, which seemed to become exposed as a bit of a liability in the post-season. To that end the club signed veteran Phillie-killer Brian Schneider to be the backup catcher, Juan Castro as a slick-fielding defensive infielder, and Ross Gload as a veteran pinch-hitter. Along with returnee Greg Dobbs, they will make up the majority of the Phils bench in the coming season.

Finally, the Phils have replaced the slick-fielding but offensively inconsistent and one-dimensional Pedro Feliz with returning veteran Placido Polanco at third base. There are not many better glovemen at the hot corner than Feliz, but Polanco is a vast improvement as a hitter who should bring greater flexibility and patience to a batting order that can use both at times. Although he won a Gold Glove as a 2nd baseman, he has the experience and athleticism to succeed at 3rd.

Amaro still has a little bit of work to do in finalizing the shape of the 2010 bullpen. Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, and Chad Durbin should continue to have prime roles there. The team will have decisions to make on possibly adding or bringing back 2-3 other bullpen arms. Veteran Jamey Moyer will likely battle young Kyle Kendrick for the 5th starter role.

Phillies fans can now relax and enjoy a team in both 2010 and 2011 that will include Halladay fronting a rotation with Hamels and J.A. Happ both years, and with a lineup including Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, Ibanez, and Ruiz both years. All the while, prospects will develop and players will come and go around them, but health-allowing, the team will be a contender both years.

With back to back World Series appearances, one world championship in the bank already, three consecutive N.L. East titles, one of the most beautiful ballparks in the game, and a mostly set and talented lineup and rotation, the Phillies and their fans can truly sit back now and enjoy a happy holiday season with a happy Halladay on hand. Merry Christmas, Phillies fans!

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Who Should Start Game 7 for the Phillies?


The Philadelphia Phillies team, and particularly manager Charlie Manuel, are approaching their current situation in this World Series in exactly the manner you would expect. They are taking things one game at a time with the announcement that the starter for Game 6 of the series back in the Bronx at Yankee Stadium will be veteran Pedro Martinez.

Once the Phils won the 5th game and cut the Yanks lead down to 3-2, that was pretty much a forgone conclusion. Martinez started in Game #2 and pitched effectively, and also has the experience and mental makeup to thrive in that pressurized atmosphere. So the Phillies will once again put the ball in the hands of the man who has stated that he is the Yankees' "daddy", hoping that he can help force a decisive 7th game.

What Manuel has not done is announce who his starter would be for that 7th game. That is likely because he really hasn't fully committed to a final decision in his own mind, simply wanting to focus on getting the series tied. But that hasn't stopped the talking head 'experts' on both television and radio, or the armchair managers in homes across the Delaware Valley, from both speculating on the choice and tossing in their own two cents worth of advice.

Depending on how Game #6 plays out and what pitchers might have to be utilized to get through that game, and assuming that the Phillies are even able to win and get things tied up, the choices are somewhat limited. Many of those chiming in from the outside are calling for the choice to be rookie lefty J.A. Happ, who was one of the Phillies' best starting pitchers this season and who at this point is well-rested. Happ has not pitched since going 1 1/3 innings in Game #3 on Saturday night. He would be pitching with a full four days of rest if not used in Game #6.

However, my choice to start that Game #7 would be possibly the next-to-last man that many Phillies fans would want to see make the start, particularly in light of his struggles during much of the 2009 season and the results of his start in Game #3, as well as his comments following that start. My choice would be to have Cole Hamels make what would be his normal start on normal rest.

There are a number of reasons that I think Hamels both deserves and would be the best choice to make this start. First, Hamels would indeed be on his normal pitching day with four full days of rest. Second, he only threw 69 pitches in Game #3 over just 4 1/3 innings. He has had plenty of rest, is healthy, and would be physically capable of giving the Phillies a strong starting effort.

Further, I don't think that Hamels was very far away from a strong start in Game #3. He no-hit the Yankees for the first three innings, and allowed just a hit and a walk through the first four. Overall he had a 49-20 strikes-to-balls ratio. Of course, he imploded in the 5th inning, allowing small things to bother him and snowball into a 3-run inning and a 5-3 Yankee lead that they would never relinquish.

This has been Hamels downfall throughout the entirety of the 2009 season, and particularly in the post-season. He is throwing well and then something - not getting a perceived strike call from an umpire on a close pitch in an important situation, or a rare fielding miscue from one of his usually sure-handed teammates during an important situation - gets him upset and throws him off his game. He allows the situation to control him rather than keeping his composure and plowing through the setback.

This is a maturity issue for the still-young and possibly still-future staff ace. Last post-season, Hamels was on top of his game and gained confidence with each strong outing. He rolled through lineups like a machine, and was named both the NLCS and World Series MVP as his club won a championship. This year he has struggled through injury, inconsistency, bad weather, and just plain dumb-luck. There is every reason to believe that in the future he will rebound nicely.

But right now, most fans don't think that the team can trust Hamels, particularly in a winner-take-all pressurized 7th game of the World Series scenario at Yankee Stadium in front of hostile fans against a potent lineup with his psyche so fragile. Frankly, I believe that their thinking is all wrong on the situation.

Hamels has indeed been fragile and inconsistent. He has also, however, shown tantalizing glimpses and even whole games where he was his dominant self, including his most recent start. The important thing to remember here is that this would be the final game of the season for every Phillies pitcher. Every single active pitcher on the staff would be available for some length of time, with the possible exception of Pedro, and even that would depend on how long he goes in Game Six.

So you can start Hamels in the familiar role, but it is not a typical start. You hope that you get the Hamels who started Game #3 and who controls the Yankees early while the Phils bats get on the board. But you don't have to depend on Cole to go deep into the game. At any point at which he looks like he is losing control of either his pitches or his emotions, you get him out of the game. Maybe that doesn't happen until deep. Maybe he rolls along and gains confidence and gives you a shutdown performance.

The important thing is that, with no more games on the schedule, everyone is in the bullpen. Happ is ready early. Game #4 starter Joe Blanton is ready with 3-days rest to give you an inning or two. The usual bullpen arms like Durbin, Eyre, Myers, Park, Madson, and Lidge are all ready. And with the circumstances of this game, all are ready for situational relief at any point in any inning. Finally, Cliff Lee is even available for an inning. It will be his usual 'bullpen' day anyway, so he should be fully capable of giving you at least one full inning.

So the bottom line is that you start Cole Hamels and hope for the best, and the odds are that with the spotlight on him and with something to prove, he will give you a solid performance. If not, you not only have a short leash, you have absolutely no leash if you see him start to get into trouble in any way from the start of the game onward. Happ is ready to go at the outset in case something happens early, and everyone is ready during the game if they are needed.

Of course, that is all for fan and media discussion at this point, because the focus of the team will be right where it should be, on winning Game #6, whatever that takes. If that means you need Happ to throw a few innings, then you use him and you do what it takes to tie the series up. Because without winning this next game, a decisive and penultimate Game #7 will forever remain a "what if" scenario. Cole Hamels should start Game #7 for the Phillies, but they still have to get there first.

Monday, November 2, 2009

It's Happened Five Times


The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves trailing the 2009 World Series by three games to one to the New York Yankees after last night's disheartening 9th inning defeat in Game #4 of the Fall Classic. Can a team come back from this kind of deficit on Major League Baseball's ultimate stage in a best-of-7 games format?

History shows that it can, and has, five different times to be exact. So let's take a walk down the memory lane of baseball history with stars Pie Traynor, Max Carey, Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Al Kaline, Eddie Matthews, Enos Slaughter, Willie Stargell, and George Brett, each of whom played on teams that came back from 1-3 down to win the World Series, and each of whom went on to immortality in baseball's Hall of Fame.

In 1925, Traynor and Carey played for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and their club may have had one of the toughest roads to travel of any comeback team. The Bucs trailed the defending World Series champion Washington Senators by 3-1, and despite rallying to even the series things did not bode well for the Pirates chances of actually completing the comeback and winning the series.

The reason that the odds still seemed stack against Pittsburgh was the presence of one man, Senators pitching legend Walter 'Big Train' Johnson, one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history. Johnson had already pitched and won the 1st and 4th games of the series by 4-1 and 4-0 scores. Now here in the decisive 7th game, the Sens bolted out of the gate with a 4-run first inning.

Staked to that 4-0 lead, Johnson coasted through a couple of innings before the Bucs rallied for a 3-run third. The Sens got a pair back in the 4th, and the Pirates scored one in the 5th, but entering the bottom of the 7th, the Senators led by 6-4. The Pirates tied it up with two in that inning. Washington went back up with a run in the 8th, but then Pittsburgh scored 2 in the bottom of the 8th and incredibly led 8-7 entering the 9th. Red Oldham closed out the Sens, and the Pirates had completed the amazing comeback for the first time in baseball history.

It would be 33 years before the Pirates feat was repeated. This time it was Mantle, Berra, Ford, and the New York Yankees who found themselves trailing the defending World Series champion Milwaukee Braves by 3-1. Both the Giants and Dodgers had moved to California and played their first seasons out west, so this was the first year ever that the Yankees had all of the Big Apple on their side.

Bob Turley tossed a 5-hitter at old Yankee Stadium to keep the team alive, and the series shifted back to Milwaukee. Here in Game 6, two of baseball's immortal arms dueled as both Ford for the Yanks and Warren Spahn for the Braves twirled gems. The two teams went into extra innings tied at 2-2. The Yanks scored a pair in the top of the 10th for a 4-2 lead, but the Braves answered when Hank Aaron knocked in a run in their half and eventually moved to 3rd as the tying run, but future Yanks's skipper Joe Torre's brother Frank lined out to end the game.

In the decisive 7th game in Milwaukee, the two teams seemed like a pair of tired boxers, each trying to hang on and outlast the other. They entered the 8th inning tied again at 2-2, and Braves pitcher Lew Burdette quickly got the first two Yanks out. But then suddenly the Bronx Bombers awoke with 4 straight hits capped by a Moose Scowron 3-run homer. They would coast through the final two innings for a 6-2 victory, completing the series comeback.

A decade later the Detroit Tigers with Kaline and Matthews found themselves trailing the defending World Series champion Saint Louis Cardinals. Mickey Lolich had started Game Two for the Tigers and recorded a complete game 8-1 victory. Down by 3 games to 1, the Tigers again turned to Lolich. Again he recorded a complete game victory, this time by a 5-3 margin.

Detroit's big bats exploded for a 10-run 3rd inning in Game Six, and the Tigers coasted into the decisive 7th game. Here, Lolich was brought back on just two days rest to face the great Cardinals intimidating right-hander Bob Gibson. For the third time in the series, Lolich met the challenge by tossing a complete game. The Tigers broke a scoreless tie with three 7th-inning runs and completed the comeback with a 4-1 victory.

It was another decade before I had my own first experience with a team rallying from 1-3 down. That team was the 1979 'We Are Family' Pittsburgh Pirates. During the regular season, those Pirates had beaten out the 3-time defending NL East Division champion Phillies for the eastern title. Moving on to the World Series, they found themselves trailing the pitching-rich Baltimore Orioles.

The Pirates big bats, nicknamed 'The Lumber Company' with stars like Stargell, Dave Parker, and Bill Madlock leading the way, erupted to win the 5th game by a 7-1 margin. But then the series shifted back to Baltimore, and there the O's would send their own legendary righthander Jim Palmer to the mound. Palmer was incredibly out pitched by Bucs youngster John 'the Candy Man' Candelaria for a 4-0 Pirates win that tied the series.

The decisive Game 7 saw the Orioles carry a tense 1-0 lead into the 6th inning. It was here that Stargell broke out with a mammoth 2-run homer that put the Pirates on top. That narrow lead was carried into the 9th inning, where Pittsburgh put the game and the series comeback away by scoring a pair of insurance runs.

Just six years later a comeback from down 1-3 in the World Series happened again, this time thanks largely to one of the most controversial umpiring calls in baseball history. It was also significant that this series would mark the final time that it would be played with no 'DH' in the AL park games, and would be the first played with all night games.

The 'I-70' series would feature a pair of perennial contenders of the day, both from the state of Missouri, the Saint Louis Cardinals and the Kansas City Royals. The Cards bolted out to that 3-1 series lead, and it appeared that the Royals all-time great hitter George Brett would again face post-season frustration. But the club responded with a solid 6-1 victory that returned the series to Kansas City.

Game Six of that 1985 World Series would be one of the most controversial in history thanks to a pair of umpiring calls. A scoreless pitchers duel was broken up by a Cardinals run in the top of the 8th, and they took that 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 9th, just three outs away from clinching the series title. It was then that the craziness began.

Royals leadoff man Jorge Orta bounced a routine grounder to Cards' 1st baseman Jack Clark, who flipped the ball to reliever Todd Worrell who covered the bag and clearly beat Orta for the first out (pictured). Everyone in the ballpark, including every television angle, saw that clear first out. Unfortunately for the Cards, 1st base umpire Don Denkinger didn't see it that way. He ruled Orta 'safe' in what has become possibly the single most controversial umpiring call in the modern television era.

The next Royals batter, Steve Balboni, lofted an easy foul pop, but the ball fell between the Cards defenders giving Balboni new life. He promptly took advantage by singling. With two on and no outs, the Cards seemed to gain momentum when Worrell made a great play to field an attempted sacrifice bunt. He fielded, whirled, and fired to 3rd to get the lead runner.

But the drama was far from over. A passed ball by St. Louis catcher Darrell Porter made up for Worrell's great play, allowing the two runners to move into scoring position. After an intention walk, pinch-hitter Dane Iorg looped a game-winning 2-run single to right field. The stunned Cardinals returned to their lockers after the series-tying 2-1 loss to find the lockers covered in plastic and bottles of champagne on ice. They would never get to pop those bottles.

In the decisive 7th game, young Royals ace Brett Saberhagen tossed a 5-hit shutout on the day after becoming a father for the first time. The Royals had completed the incredible comeback from down 1-3 in the World Series and became the first team to do so after losing the first two games at home. Amazingly they had also trailed by 1-3 to the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS and rallied to win that series as well.

The 1903 Boston Americans, who later became the Boston Red Sox, also trailed in the World Series by 3 games to 1 against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those Americans rallied to win four straight games and take the 2nd-ever official World Series by 5-3 in what was then a best-of-9 event.

So the moral of the story for our Fightin' Phils is that the task ahead of them can be accomplished successfully. It hasn't been done now in 23 years, and it will take them focusing on one game at a time, some heroic pitching and hitting efforts, and possibly a little bit of fortune at some point. But it can be done. The series is best-of-7, and the Yanks haven't won a thing until they win that 4th game.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

1993 World Series


The Phillies reached the World Series, then got their fans all excited at the prospects of winning against their high-powered and favored opponents by splitting the first two games on the road. Coming back to Philly, emotions were high and the city was primed for the excitement. And then the visitors put on a baseball clinic, swamped the Phils, and went up 2-1 in the series. Last night? Nope. 1993 actually.

I have been a Phillies fan for most of my life, and I have always been able to say without any reservation that from start to finish, the 1993 Phillies were the single most fun team that I have ever watched. The varied and colorful personalities on that team combined with the fact that they had finished in last place the previous year and so were pulling off a rare 'worst to first' season were the main reasons.

That Phillies team was led by a 'Macho Row' contingent, nicknamed as such because of the section of the locker room in which they sat. Darren 'Dutch' Daulton was the catcher with movie-star good looks, the longest-tenured player, and the de facto team Captain. Dutch banged 24 homers and knocked in 105 runs after he had survived a major car crash a couple of seasons earlier with another one of the team's most colorful characters.

That other player in Daulton's car accident was known alternately as 'Nails' or 'the Dude', and he was the team MVP. Lenny Dykstra was the prototypical leadoff hitter who worked the opposing pitcher for deep pitch counts, then provided speed and daring on the base paths. Combined with some power pop in his bat, the Dude had put together a .305 average, .420 on-base percentage, 19-homer, 37-steal, 143-runs season that led to a 2nd place NL MVP finish behind only Barry Bonds.

The first baseman was perhaps the most colorful of the bunch. John Kruk was one of the best pure hitters in baseball. The rolly-polly and scruffy-bearded Kruk was asked by a female reporter what it was being a pro athlete, to which he famously replied "I ain't no athlete, lady, I'm a ballplayer!" And could he ever hit, that season going .316 with a .430 on-base percentage, 85 rbi, and 100 runs scored.

Macho Row was filled out by scary-crazy 3rd baseman and team enforcer Dave 'Mikey' Hollins and Pete Incaviglia, who looked like a mafiosa enforcer himself. The 'straight guys' in the lineup were veteran outfielder Milt Thompson, Tourrets syndrome-inflicted outfielder Jim Eisenreich, steady infielders Mickey Morandini and Mariano Duncan, and baby-faced rookie shortstop Kevin Stocker, who had come up to the team from the minors late in the season and provided an irreplaceable spark.

On the mound the team was led by outspoken eternal optimist and breakout ace Curt Schilling, talented young righthander Tommy Greene, and veterans Danny Jackson and Terry Mulholland. The bullpen featured a colorful veteran in current Phils broadcaster Larry Anderson, but was anchored at the back end by one of the most flamboyant, inconsistent, maddening, lovable, flame-throwing closers of all-time, Mitch 'Wild Thing' Williams.

The manager of this crazy bunch of castoffs and cartoon characters was baseball lifer Jim Fregosi, who a couple of years later would hit on my wife right in front of me. But that's another story for another day. That summer of 1993, Fregosi was the perfect fit for this bunch, a man who had seen it all, or so he thought.

The 1993 Phillies started out hot and never looked back, leading the NL East division wire-to-wire and finishing 97-65 to win the division title by 3 games over the Montreal Expos. In the NLCS they were prohibitive underdogs to a 104-win Atlanta Braves team that was about to start their own dynasty. But the Phils battled to a 4-2 series victory with Mitch Williams striking out the final Braves hitter and setting off a wild celebration at Veteran's Stadium as the Phillies advanced to the World Series for the first time in a decade.

Most baseball people had them as big enough underdogs to the Braves, but in the World Series that status would rise to another level. The Phils were going to be facing the defending World Series champion Toronto Blue Jays, a team laden with All-Stars and future Hall of Famers like Paul Molitor, Rickey Henderson, Joe Carter, Roberto Alomar, Dave Stewart, Al Leiter, and John Olerud.

The Jays opened at home by scoring three 7th inning runs to break open a tight game and take an 8-5 win that left many thinking they would sweep the Phils. But this mentally tough Phillies team came back in the 2nd game with a big 5-run 3rd inning that they used to coast to a 6-4 win and a 1-1 tie in the series. When the team returned home for three games, the raucous crowd at 'The Vet' was hoping to help make the difference and spur the team to the upset.

Game 3 was a complete damper for the Phils and their fans. The Blue Jays bats came alive by scoring three first-inning runs en route to a huge 10-3 victory that demoralized the Fightin's and their fans. Most baseball people though the Phils had stolen their one win from these champs, and that the Jays would now coast to the series victory.

Game 4 of that 1993 World Series would turn out to be one of the most incredible games in baseball playoff history, and a dark day in the annals of Phillies history. The Jays bolted out of the gates hot, again scoring three in the first. But this time the Phils answered, scoring four of their own for a 4-3 lead after one inning. Two more in the 2nd put the club up 6-3, but the Jays answered with 4 in the 3rd for a 7-6 Toronto edge. The Phils tied it in the 4th, and then rallied for 5 runs in the 5th to take a 12-7 lead. Things looked good for a 2-2 series tie, and the Phils would have their ace Schilling on the mound the next night.

The Jays scored 2 in the 6th to get back within 12-9, but the Phils scored once in the bottom for a 13-9 lead and once again in the 7th to stretch it to 14-9, a lead which they took into the 8th inning. It was there that things fell apart. The Jays scored six runs in what seemed like a never ending rally, taking back the lead 15-14. The champs held on to that lead, and the Phillies had a completely demoralizing loss, down now by three games to one.

The Jays were just one win away from their repeat title, and the Phils were down. They needed someone to step up and be a hero, someone to give them reason to believe that they could actually beat this Jays team. Their ace did the job, as Curt Schilling tossed a 5-hit gem of a shutout and the Phillies won 2-0, forcing the series back to Toronto. With the Jays lead down to 3-2, the Phils hoped to just squeeze out a win any way possible and force a 7th game.

In Game 6 back at Toronto, the Jays methodically built a 5-1 lead which they took into the 7th. The Phillies appeared dead, and the Jays fans were celebrating their apparent World Series repeat early. But the Phillies bats suddenly rose from the dead, scoring 5 runs in that 7th highlighted by a Dykstra clutch homerun. With a 6-5 lead, the Phillies moved into the 9th looking to tie the series.

Williams came on to get the Phils even, but he walked Henderson to lead things off. He came back to get Devon White for the first out, and the Phils were two outs away from evening the series. Molitor battled to get a 2-strike single. Joe Carter stepped to the plate. Williams got him to a 2-2 count, one strike away from getting the Jays slugger, one ground ball away from a game-ending double play.

Instead it was Carter who ended the game, and the World Series. Williams came in with a low, hard pitch and Carter got his bat around quickly on the ball, driving it on a line towards the left field corner. The ball sailed just over the fence, and the Toronto fans erupted as the 3-run homerun won the series for the Jays. Carter lept for joy and was mobbed by his teammates at home plate at the conclusion of one of baseball's most dramatic moments.

Those 1993 Philadelphia Phillies have lived on in sentimental favor with the fans. Even Mitch Williams, branded a public enemy for awhile in the town, has become a cult hero. He fully accepted responsibility for the loss, and ultimately the fans embraced the fact that he never shrunk from his role. He is now a popular TV analyst with the team. Kruk has gone on to become a national baseball analyst as well.

The 1993 World Series was not a win for the Phillies, and one of the biggest reasons in looking back was their failure to put away what should have been a win in that 4th game which would have tied the series. Tonight the current Phillies have that same opportunity, to tie the series up with their ace going tomorrow. This time, the club must get it to 2-2 and give Cliff Lee a chance to put them back up.

Friday, October 30, 2009

The Middle Three at Home


Major League Baseball decides the World Series and both League Championship Series with best-of-7 game series that utilize a 2-3-2 home game format. This means that one team is at home for two games, then the other has the middle three at home, and finally the first team hosts the final two games.

Often, and the results of this decade prove it out, any team which opens with two games on the road, manages to win at least one of those road games, and then comes home for the next three has a serious advantage. That is the position that the Phillies now find themslves in after splitting two games at the Yankees home ballpark.

Since the year 2000, counting all World Series, NLCS, and ALCS matchups, there have been 30 different series played. In 16 of those series a team opened by either gaining a split or actually getting a sweep of the first two games on the road, returning home for the next three games at least tied. Of the 16 teams doing so, 11 went on to win their series.

Most of the instances where a team split on the road only to eventually lose the series happened in the American League, where it happened four times. The '00Mariners split but lost to the Yankees in 6 games. Each of the '03 Red Sox,'07 Indians, and '08 Red Sox gained road splits only to eventually lose in 7 games.

Three times a team opened on the road and won both games: the '00 Mets in the NLCS, '01 Yankees in the ALCS, and '02 Giants in the NLCS. As you might imagine, all went on to win their series. Only twice has a team managed a split, gone home for three, and been swept out at home: the '01 Braves in the NLCS by Arizona, and the '05 Angels in the ALCS by the White Sox.

In the World Series played over the past decade, no team has been able to gain a sweep on the road in the first two games, as the Phillies tried to accomplish last night. But there have been four series that featured a team gaining a split to open on the road, including last year when the Phils split the first two games in Tampa.

Only the 2002 San Francisco Giants, who gained a split with the Angels, went on to lose the series. In fact, those Giants even came home and won 2 of 3 to go up by three games to two. The Angels rallied to win that epic California series in 7 games, including a dramatic late-game rally in Game Six, dashing Barry Bonds only hope of winning a World Series.

In 2003, the Florida Marlins split against the Yanks in New York and went on to win the series in 6 games. In 2006 it was the Saint Louis Cardinals gaining a split in Detroit, going on to win the series in 5 by sweeping at home. The Phillies then did their part, splitting in Tampa in 2008 before coming home to win in 5 games by also sweeping at home.

What you have done by managing to at least gain a split of the first two games on the road in a series is that you have stolen away the 'home field advantage' from your host. The Yankees were scheduled originally to host 4 games of a 7 game series. With those first two split, the series effectively starts over again in Philly, and the Phillies will be home at Citizens Bank park for 3 of the 5 games left.

All the Yankees need to do is win one game here in Philadelphia, and they regain their home field advantage. They also would ensure that even in a worse-case scenario where the Phils win the other two, they will get to return to Yankee Stadium for at least one more game. But the Yankees will find that win difficult to come by, with the home crowd and field conditions helping the Phils to an 11-1 record in their last 12 home playoff games.

The Phillies on the other hand did what they had to do, they got that split in New York. The now return home with the knowledge that, if they win their home games, they will not have to go back to New York at all. At the very least, the odds of them getting knocked out at home are very long. Again, only 2 of the 16 teams to gain a road split have been subsequently swept at home. In fact, 10 of the 16 teams went on to win at least 2 of their 3 home games.

The odds are in the Phillies favor to take 2 of 3 and move within a game of a repeat title. By actually winning all three of the middle three games at home, the Phillies will repeat as World Series champions in front of a delirious home crowd. It is that very home crowd that they are hoping helps provide the difference in these games.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

1-0 Means A Little; 2-0 Means A Lot


The Fightin' Phils received a magnificent performance from Cliff Lee, who has been superb throughout these 2009 playoffs, and a "you ARE the man" 2-homerun show from Chase Utley to lead the way to a big 6-1 victory and a one game to none lead in last night's Game One of the World Series.

For the Phillies that means an awful lot. Much has already been written and spoken in other venues this morning relating to the fact that the last 6 teams to win Game One went on to win the World Series. Some have even pointed out that, even more ominously for that loser of the opener, 11 of the last 12 teams to win that first game have gone on to win the Series.

The one time in the past dozen years that the team winning the opener did not ultimately win was in the epic 2002 all-California World Series between the Barry Bonds-led San Francisco Giants and the Anaheim Angels. The GMen took the opener that year, lost the next two, then won games four and five to take a 3-2 series lead back to Anaheim. There they took a 5-3 lead into the bottom of the 8th before the Angels rallied to win, then won the 7th game and the franchise' only-ever World Series.

But tonight when Pedro Martinez takes the mound at the new Yankee Stadium he will be trying to tie an even tighter knot in the collar around the Yankee necks. The World Series began in 1903 and has been held every year with the exceptions of 1904 and 1994, making this the 104th Fall Classic. Only 11 times has a team fallen behind by 2 games to none and gone on to rally and win the World Series. Do the math - that's an 11% success rate.

So if the Phillies can somehow, in any way, fight their way to another victory tonight in the Bronx and take that 2-0 lead in the series, they odds tilt enormously in their favor with an 89% probability that they will win the World Series. Those numbers would actually likely be even a bit higher considering that the next three games will move to their home field at Citizens Bank Park.

This is the position that the club has put itself in by winning the opener last night. But nothing is guaranteed in tonight's 2nd game, and their own recent playoff history should remind these Phillies of that fact. In last season's run to the World Series championship, the Phils took the first game of each of their series' against Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Tampa. Only in the Milwaukee series did they win Game Two.

This year they won the openers vs. Colorado in the NLDS and LA in the NLCS, but lost Game Two. That makes them 1-4 over the past two seasons in 2nd games of series. Go back to their sweep at the hands of the Rockies in the 2007 NLDS and the Phils are 1-5 in Game Two of their recent playoff series. There is usually a reason for these things when they happen, and there may be for this club as well.

These Phillies seem to thrive on being the underdogs, and on having their backs against the wall. Like the fictional hometown boxer Rocky Balboa, they relish in rising from the canvas to knock out their seemingly unbeatable opponents, especially with their home crowd roaring them on in support. These Phillies have proven much over the past couple of seasons, now they must prove that they have learned how to step on an opponent's neck once they have them down.

Perhaps more than at any other time in their recent playoff runs, they may have the right man in the right place at the right time. When Pedro Martinez takes the mound for them tonight there is absolutely no chance that the Yankee Stadium crowd or any of the other distractions of a World Series will shake him up. The future Hall of Famer is unflappable. The only two questions will be whether he has his good stuff, and whether the Phils bring their big bats to the contest.

The Phillies are one more good night, likely one hard-fought night, away from stepping on the Yankees necks and demanding the respect that they deserve as champions but have not yet been given by the national media and the odds-makers. One good night from Pedro, or the Phillies bats, or both, and Citizens Bank Park should again become the scene of a major World Series victory party this weekend.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Phils Fall Over a Cliff, Not Off of One


Somebody slap me across the face, or pinch me...real hard.

Are my beloved Philadelphia Phillies really the World Series champions? The reigning kings of Major League Baseball?

Have they really won back-to-back East Division titles, poised to win a third straight?

And has it now really gotten to the point where their farm system is so deep with quality prospects that they can pry the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner away for a few of those prospects just before the trade deadline?

And they got a right-handed power-speed package outfielder in that same trade? And they still have their very best prospects left in that farm system?

Really? Seriously?

Fellow fans of the local nine, our beloved Fightin's are among the cream of the crop in Major League Baseball. It's for real. And you had likely better get used to it, because barring some major unforeseen occurrence, they are likely to remain top contenders for the next 2-3 seasons, at least.

Yesterday, just 72 hours shy of baseball's non-waiver trading deadline, the Phillies obtained veteran lefty Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco from the Cleveland Indians for a package of prospects: pitcher Jason Knapp, pitcher Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson, and shortstop Jason Donald.

From many fans there was jubilation. Amazingly from some there was disappointment. The sports talk radio crowd had been driven into a mad frenzy over the past few weeks by some local hosts, as the Phillies attempted to first obtain Toronto Blue Jays ace starting pitcher Roy Halladay.

These hosts repeatedly called Halladay "The Best Pitcher in the Game Today", and prodded the Phillies organization to trade away the package that Toronto wanted, which included the very top prospects in the system: pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor, along with young lefty pitcher J.A. Happ, who was only 7-0 in the big leagues at the time.

Let's set a couple of things straight right now. First, the Phillies and General Manager Ruben Amaro made a sensational deal to bring Lee and Francisco here, adding high quality pieces to what was already another legitimate championship contender. Second, Roy Halladay is not the clear-cut best pitcher in the game, and would not have guaranteed that the Phillies would win another World Series or two.

What both Lee and Halladay are is this: they are both among the very best starting pitchers in baseball. Who the absolute best is varies from year to year. A decade ago you would be right to say that one year it's Pedro Martinez, the next it's Randy Johnson, the next it's Roger Clemens, and so on. Now, one year it's Johan Santana, the next it's Cliff Lee, the next it's Roy Halladay, and so on.

What is important here is not what you didn't get, it's what you did. Cliff Lee courageously fills the strike zone with pitches. He rarely walks batters. He does not beat himself. He is not afraid to throw inside, or to backup his team if someone is throwing at them. He is a veteran leader who is still in the prime of his career, who has already won his profession's top individual award.

These local radio hosts would be smart to remember what Gene Hackman's famous coaching character said in the film Hoosiers: "I would hope that you would support who we are, and not who we are not!"

What is important here are the ramifications of the deal. In trading for Cliff Lee with Cleveland, the Phils get to keep both Happ and Drabek, two pitchers who could very conceivably be joining Lee in the starting rotation for the next 3-4 years. Of course, the Phils need to get to the business of extending Lee's contract, which they should try to address between now and the early winter.

They also get to keep Joe Blanton, a valuable right-handed starter due a salary increase in arbitration this winter. Blanton would likely have been dealt to help defray the $6 million more in salary that Halladay will make next year over Lee.

They also get to keep both Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor, a pair of exciting, emerging, multi-tooled outfielders, at least one of whom is likely to be a huge part of the next Phillies offensive generation that we will be rooting for down at Citizens Bank Park.

And make no mistake, Phillies fans. As we all know very well, that next generation will indeed have to take the field one day, and probably sooner than any of us will realize it is happening. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Brad Lidge...they won't be youthful forever.

The Philadelphia Phillies front office management team did an outstanding job this week, both for the current World Series champions who are trying to repeat, and for the organization's ability to continue to be a contender well into the future.

Ruben Amaro and the Phillies management team got it right. Rather than falling off a cliff, they fell over one. The fans are sure to fall for this particular Cliff in short order.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

What is Wrong With the Phillies?


It was just three weeks ago today that things seemed so much better for the defending World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies. That's because just three short weeks ago, things actually were so much better for the team. Three weeks ago today, the Phillies got a two-out, three-run homerun in the 10th inning from Raul Ibanez and a shutdown save from Ryan Madson to beat the rival New York Mets by a 6-3 score.

That win over the Mets capped a fantastic 3-city, 10-game road trip on which the club went 7-3 to raise their record to 35-23. The team was a dozen games over the .500 mark, and was holding a four game lead on the Mets for first place in the NL East. The Florida Marlins were buried at that time, four games under the .500 mark and eight games back in the standings.

The team returned home from that long road trip to an excited fan base ready for a long summer of winning baseball at Citizens Bank Park. The champs were riding high, and appeared ready to take off and run away with the division race for once. The excitement was palpable as the Boston Red Sox came to town to begin the annual Inter-League portion of the schedule.

When the Bosox took the first two games, the fans didn't panic, and were rewarded with an offensive outburst on Sunday as the Phillies won an 11-6 game. It would be the team's final win of the homestand. Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles came to town and swept the Phils. Then the team went on the road, where they have now gone 3-5 entering tonights finale in Atlanta.

After a three-week free-fall of baseball futility, the Phillies are just 39-36, three games over the .500 mark, and hold just a half game lead over those previously buried but now red-hot Florida Marlins. Perhaps more importantly, there don't appear to be any easy answers to turn things around.

Let's take a minute to look at what exactly is wrong right now, and at a few possible solutions.

First, there has been a key offensive injury. Just days after crushing that homerun to win the Mets game, Raul Ibanez went on the disabled list with a groin injury. At the time he was the team's offensive hero to that point in the season, adding a highly productive, all-star caliber 3rd wheel to the Ryan Howard-Chase Utley combo. He has missed the bulk of this losing stretch.

Second, the bullpen, so consistently effective down the stretch and in the playoffs last season, has become alternatingly injured and ineffective. It all begins where games are supposed to end, with closer Brad Lidge. The 'Lights-Out Lidge' of a year ago has disappeared. In his place is a guy who has now blown a half dozen saves, and who carries an incredible 7.57 ERA, the stuff that gets most pitchers sent to the minor leagues.

The rest of the bullpen has been inconsistent thanks to a variety of factors. Key lefty setup man J.C. Romero spent the first two months of the season serving a 50-game suspension. Main setup man Ryan Madson did well, but then seemed to wither under the pressure of closing when Lidge went on the DL. Key situational relievers Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre are on the DL right now.

The third key to the losing skid has been a starting rotation that is collapsing under the weight of injury, ineffectiveness, and perhaps age as well. The loss of #2 starter Brett Myers has left a gaping hole. The ageless Jamie Moyer has been showing his age more and more. And perhaps most frighteningly, presumed ace Cole Hamels, the MVP of both the NLCS and the World Series, has mostly been awful.

Hamels has won just 4 of 15 starts. He is sporting a 4.98 ERA, which is more than twice his career mark. His stuff has been missing as well. He has allowed far more hits than innings pitched, a key stat showing hitters are not being fooled, and has struck out fewer batters than innings pitched, showing that he cannot overmatch most hitters. At this stage of the season, Cole is pitching more like a #3-4 pitcher than an ace.

Moyer is just as disconcerting. He has a massive 6.05 ERA, and has won just 6 of his 15 starts. He is pitching like a 5th starter at this point, and we may be seeing the final months of his long and distinguished baseball career. Joe Blanton has not been any better either. He has also won just 4 of 15 starts, and has a 5.08 ERA. The Phillies top three starters are a combined 14-15 with a combined ERA above five runs per game. That is the stuff of a losing team.

There have been bright lights and saving graces, the only reasons that the team incredibly remains in first place with a winning record. Rookie starter J.A. Happ has come out of the bullpen and ridden to the rotation rescue, going 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He is coming off his first career complete game shutout. Without him these past few weeks, the Phils would have a losing record right now.

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have certainly not been a part of the problem. Utley, the starting NL All-Star 2nd baseman, is hitting .301 with a .428 on-base percentage, and has 17 homers and 52 rbi, all strong numbers. Howard has 20 homers and 60 rbi, among the league-leaders in each category, though he has also been typically hot-and-cold.

3rd baseman Pedro Feliz is having a nice season, hitting .292 with 39 rbi and providing his typically stellar defense at the hot corner. Shane Victorino is doing his job, hitting .295 with 13 steals and 52 runs scored. Jayson Werth has been up-and-down, but has provided solid numbers of 15 homers, 43 rbi, 52 runs, and 10 steals in his first full-time season.

The problem on offense has been very easy to spot. Jimmy Rollins' failures with the bat stick out like a sore thumb in the team's lineup. J-Roll is hitting just .205 with a .250 on-base percentage, and has just 41 runs scored and 11 stolen bases. You cannot steal bases and score runs if you are not getting on-base, and Rollins simply appears to be totally lost at the plate.

Phils' manager Charlie Manuel is legendary for his patience, and for being a pro-player style manager. The man believes in professionals being given a chance to work out their problems, especially when those pros have a proven track record to fall back upon. He has exhibited this with Rollins, leaving him in the leadoff spot far longer than his production has deserved. He has also tried benching the team's ersatz leader to no effect.

General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is apparently burning up the phone lines, trying to land help for the team for both the rotation and the bullpen. For once, the club has some high-ceiling prospects in it's farm system that would be attractive to another club. He is right to seek and make this kind of deal. The Phillies are built to win right now, and adding strong, proven pieces to help bolster the team and improve it's chances at a repeat title is the right way to go. But making such trades won't be easy.

The Phillies are fortunate in that their division has no other elite team. The Mets were flawed to begin with, and have suffered even more devastating injuries than the Phillies have. Their catalyst, shortstop Jose Reyes, has been out for weeks with leg problems and will miss a couple of more. Star centerfielder Carlos Beltran has a deep knee bruise, and will miss at least a month. Slugger Carlos Delgado has been out awhile, and may miss most of the season. Setup man J.J. Putz is also likely done for the year.

The Marlins are charging now, have strong young pitching, have all-world shortstop Hanley Ramirez, slugging 2nd baseman Dan Uggla, and a few other nice pieces, but do not appear capable of running away. The Braves have at least a shot as long as Chipper Jones is on the field and Bobby Cox is in the dugout. But none of the Phils division rivals appears capable of pulling away from them. The team is likely to be in the race all the way, and remains the team best positioned to actually do the running away.

The Phillies and their fans may need to accept the fact that this may be a struggling season. But even in a season of challenges such as this, the team is still fully capable of emerging as the division champs, and of getting hot again at playoff time. Ibanez should return to the lineup within a week, adding his electric bat to the Howard-Utley-Werth-Victorino combo. The offense will be just fine, barring any further major injuries.

Part of making that offense function fully may require dropping Rollins down to the #7 slot in the batting order. I have no problem with Manuel keeping J-Roll at the top through the All-Star break. You simply cannot write-off his track record. But at some point every situation reaches a 'cut-bait-or-switch' moment, and if Rollins continues to show no signs of emergence from his funk, he needs to be dropped for a length of time, perhaps the rest of the season.

The key to completely turning the season back around is going to come from two players: Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. If both of these two proven all-star caliber arms return to form and begin to perform to their capabilities, the Phillies should comfotably win the division title and again contend for a World Series crown. If either falters, it will lead to a major struggle. If both should remain inconsistent, or worse, the Phillies may find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time.