A Decade of Parity and History

In western historical terms, there was no year '0', so most people realize that an official decade truly runs from the year ending in '1' through the 10th year.

This means that 2001 opened the true first year, and the recent 2010 season ended the final year of the first decade of the 21st century.

For all of the talk about payrolls in baseball and a fear of competitive imbalance, here is the bottom line fact as it relates to that recently completed first decade: 9 different teams won the World Series.

The only franchise that was able to win multiple World Series titles was the one that opened the decade with a supposed jinx or curse, one that hadn't won in 90 years. That franchise was the Boston Red Sox, who won in 2004 and then again took the crown in 2007.

League or Divisional assignments didn't matter this past decade either. The two leagues evenly split the World Series victories at 5 apiece, and teams from every division won titles. The Phillies ('08) and Marlins ('03) from the N.L. East, the Cardinals ('06) from the N.L. Central, the Diamondbacks ('01) and Giants ('10) from the N.L. West gave the National League 5 titles. In addition to Boston's two titles, the Yankees ('09) joined from the A.L. East, the White Sox ('05) won from the A.L. Central, and the Angels ('02) from the A.L. West to give the American League 5 titles as well.

The Yankees did begin the decade by dominating their A.L. East division, winning the first 6 crowns. But Boston won in '07, and the Tampa Bay Rays have won 2 of the last 3 seasons. In the A.L. Central, the small-market Minnesota Twins won 6 of the 10 division titles, with the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox winning twice each. In the A.L. West, the Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels won 5 crowns, the Oakland A's took 3, and both Seattle and Texas won once each. In addition, the Detroit Tigers made the playoffs as a Wildcard team during the decade.

In the N.L., the Phillies have won the last 4 straight titles, and the Atlanta Braves won the decade's first 5 crowns. In between, the New York Mets won once.
 The N.L. Central has seen the Saint Louis Cardinals take 5 titles, with the Chicago Cubs winning 3, and with Houston and Cincinnati each winning once. The N.L. West has been the definition of parity with the LA Dodgers (3), Arizona Diamondbacks (3), San Francisco Giants (2) and San Diego Padres (2) all taking titles. Add playoff Wildcard appearances by Florida, Colorado and Milwaukee, and the N.L. has been even more up for grabs than their A.L. counterparts.

The true bottom line for building and keeping a winning, title-contending team over the past decade has not so much been the 'bottom line' of finance, but the always decisive bottom line of talent evaluation and sound decision-making. A strong organization with responsible ownership, the right talent evaluators, skilled coaches, and fearless management makes the final difference almost every time. That was proven over the past decade, despite the varied revenue opportunities of baseball's franchises.

The decade brought us incredible, historical moments. In that first year, there was the response to the attacks on America on September 11th, 2001. Baseball rightly took a step back by cancelling all games for a week. It also came back at the correct time. On Monday night, September 17th, I was blessed and humbled to be in the stands at Veteran's Stadium in Philadelphia with my wife and a capacity crowd as the Phillies met the Atlanta Braves on that first night back. A night of flag-waving, tear-flowing patriotism that signalled we would not be beaten, would not be laid low. We would carry on, strongly and proudly. It was one of the most memorable evenings in my entire life.

The post-9/11 World Series that year featured the Yankees, carrying the prayers and hearts of not only New Yorkers but of many in America with them, against the Arizona Diamondbacks featuring the incredible 1-2 pitching punch of Curt Schilling and Randy 'The Big Unit' Johnson. The Yanks were ultimately beaten in one of the most memorable series of all-time when Arizona's Luis Gonzalez blooped a series-winning, bases loaded single off legendary closer Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th inning of Game #7.

That 2001 baseball season was also highlighted by Barry Bonds record-setting 73 homeruns. In 2002, Bonds would be around for the Fall Classic when for the 2nd straight season the World Series went the full 7-game distance. And for the 2nd consecutive season it was a franchise winning it's first-ever championship as the Anaheim Angels, to the crack of their fans red 'boom sticks' and the antics of a scoreboard controlled 'Rally Monkey' rallied from a 3 games to 2 deficit, and a 5-0 deficit late in Game #6, to defeat Bonds and the San Francisco Giants.

Those would be the last two World Series of the decade that would go the distance. In fact, 6 of the last 7 World Series have been decided in 5 games or less. In 2003, the Florida Marlins won perhaps the decade's least likely title, upsetting the Yankees in 6 games behind the stellar pitching of young ace Josh Beckett.

The 2004 season provided true baseball history. First came the ALCS, where the Yankees bolted ahead of the Red Sox to a 3 games to none lead. The Bosox then began the greatest comeback in MLB history, taking a pair of extra-innings contests to get back into the series. In Game #6, Curt Schilling miraculously took the mound, overcoming a serious ankle injury with guts, gumption, and some help from the medical staff in what would become known in baseball lore as the now-legendary "Bloody Sock" game (pictured.) He pitched them to the series tie, and the Bosox throttled the Yanks in the 7th game, completing baseball's first-ever and still only rally from an 0-3 series deficit. The Sox went on to sweep the World Series and put to rest the ghost of the 9-decades old "Curse of the Bambino".

In 2005 another long-running streak of futility came to an end as the Chicago White Sox would win their first World Series crown in a half-century. Led by colorful manager Ozzie Guillen, the Chisox swept the Houston Astros for the title. The Astros were participating in the first-ever World Series for the franchise. It remains their only appearance. As of the end of the decade, neither the Seattle Mariners or Washington Nationals (formerly Montreal Expos) franchises have ever appeared in the World Series. In addition to Houston, Seattle and Washington, the San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers have yet to win a World Series.

The Saint Louis Cardinals won the World Series in 2006, led by Albert Pujols, who was perhaps the decade's greatest individual player. Pujols was the NL's Rookie of the Year in 2001 as the decade began. He was an All-Star every year except 2002. He was a 3-time NL MVP, 6-time winner of the Silver Slugger Award, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner, and won homerun, batting and rbi titles during the decade. He slugged 408 homeruns, ripped 1,900 total hits, and batted a lofty .331 over the totality of the decade. By decade's end, he would be selected by both Sports Illustrated and The Sporting News as the sport's 'Player of the Decade' honoree.

After the Red Sox were led by manager Terry Francona to their 2nd World Series crown of the decade in 2007, it was Francona's old team, the Philadelphia Phillies, who would put an entire city's futility to an end in the 2008 World Series. With the weight of a quarter-century of pro sports teams not winning a league championship in any major sport, by far the longest such streak of futility in the nation, the Phillies used a homegrown core of players in Jimmy 'JRoll' Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brett Myers, Pat Burrell, Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Madson, and NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels to end the streak.

The Phillies had a 3 games to 1 lead on the young and talented Tampa Bay Rays heading into Game #5 at Citizens Bank Park. The game began under a threat of rain, and that threat turned to reality as the game got underway. By the middle innings the night had deteriorated into monsoon-like conditions. With the two teams tied and the field reduced to water and mud piles, the umpires finally called the proceedings off and delayed the game.

What then ensued was a 48-hour period where baseball waited out the suddenly rainy period that had deluged the Philly area. Finally, after that 2-day delay, the game was resumed as the Phillies came to bat in the bottom of the 6th with the score tied at 1-1. The Phils retook the lead, Tampa tied it again, the Phils went ahead yet again and took a 3-2 lead into the top of the 9th. When Brad Lidge finally slipped a changeup past Tampa Bay's Eric Hinske and into Ruiz' glove for a final strike, the Phils closer sunk to his knees as legendary broadcaster Harry Kalas exulted: "The Philadelphia Phillies are 2010 world champions of baseball!"

The Phillies would return to the World Series the following year led by mostly the same group, but bolstered by a pair of big-game pitching pickups in Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez. But there they met a formidable New York Yankees club that had been bolstered themselves by major free agent acquisitions Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia. Together with multi-talented and controversial 3rd baseman Alex 'ARod' Rodriguez, perhaps the decades 2nd greatest player behind only Albert Pujols, and their own homegrown core of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano and Andy Pettitte, the Yanks took down the Phils in six tough games.

As the decade has come to a close over the past year, one thing that has stood out to many has been a clear changing of the guard. The decade began with players like Ken Griffey Jr., Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Frank Thomas, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar and others dominating play. But most of those players were now either gone or on their way out.

The new guard of players making their debuts at the Major League level over the past few seasons is perhaps defined and highlighted right now by the smallish, mop-haired, snaggle-toothed pitcher with the funky delivery who starts every 5th game for the San Francisco Giants. Righthander Tim 'the Freak' Lincecum won the National League Cy Young Award as the league's top pitcher in each of his first two seasons of 2008 and 2009. In 2010 he would take it a step further, leading his Giants to their first World Series championship in more than a half-century, the first ever in the 'City by the Bay' since the club moved from New York in the 1950's.

The past decade has brought us through many big stories and emotional moments. From New York and 9/11, to the controversy of Barry Bonds record-setting achievements, through the Congressional hearings on substance abuse in baseball at mid-decade, to the game finally achieving and enjoying a pair of World Baseball Classic tournaments that brought the best players from all over the planet together under the banners and for the glory of their individual nations, the game has rolled on and grown stronger. It is perhaps fitting that one of the decade's greatest stories, and greatest players, led his nation to victories in both of those WBC tournaments as Ichiro Suzuki and Japan took home both titles.

Ichiro was just one of the big stars of the decade that included the previously mentioned greatness of Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. There were so many others at the plate besides those already mentioned, from Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in Boston to the 'M & M Boys", Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, in Minnesota. The bats of Vlad Guerrero, Jeff Kent, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Chipper Jones, and others boomed. Besides the previously noted, there were the arms of Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Tim Hudson, Jamey Moyer and Trevor Hoffman befuddling and blowing away the batters.

The beginning of the next decade looms off in the distance of the ending of the long winter ahead. Where will it lead us? Will phenoms like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper help Washington to finally get to the World Series at some point in the next ten years? Can the Mariners finally get there? What kinds of numbers will Albert Pujols end up with? Will A-Rod break Bonds all-time homerun record, and will it be considered as tainted as Bonds own breaking of Hank Aaron's career record was by many? Will Bonds himself reach the Hall of Fame? All of these, and so many others that we can't now even imagine, await us in baseball's next decade.

In Cincy, 'V' is for 'Votto', and 'Victory'

It has been 73 years since St. Louis Cardinals' Hall of Famer Joe 'Ducky' Medwick hit .374 with 31 homers and 154 rbi to lead the National League in all three categories, in the process becoming the last man to win the 'Triple Crown' in the senior circuit.

It has been 15 years since the Cincinnati Reds won their only NL Central Division crown, and 20 since their last National League pennant and World Series titles in 1990. In fact, it has been a decade now since their last winning season, when the 2000 club led by returning-hometown hero Ken Griffey Jr led the club to a 2nd place finish.

In short, it's been a mostly long, hard ride for the fans of the Redlegs out in western Ohio since the days when Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, Tony Perez and the rest of the 'Big Red Machine' under manager Sparky Anderson were dominating the National League during the 1970's.

But in 2010, the winning is back in the Midwest. Victories have piled on top of victories, and the team woke up this morning in first place, 20 games over the .500 mark, 4 games in front of the previously favored St. Louis Cardinals. But the letter 'V' does not only stand for those 'victory' totals this summer in Cincy. The letter also stands for 'Votto', as in Joey Votto, the team's 1st baseman and leader whose performances are MVP caliber, and also have him challenging to win the Triple Crown.

Votto woke up on Saturday morning with a .327 average, 31 homeruns and 91 rbi. He has also scored 90 runs and even stolen 11 bases. Votto's average has him 7 percentage points ahead of fellow Triple Crown contender Albert Pujols and Colorado Rockies' phenom Carlos Gonzalez at the top of the NL leader boards. The 31 homers have him tied for 2nd in the league with Adam Dunn, 4 behind Pujols. The rbi total leaves him 3 behind Pujols.

The fact that both Votto and Pujols are legitimate Triple Crown and Most Valuable Player contenders in the NL is, in fact, being bolstered by the competition to get their respective teams to the top of the NL Central standings at the finish.
 And the two clubs will meet one final time head-to-head, next weekend in Saint Louis, in what should be a major showdown for both team and individual honors.

Pujols' place among the leader boards is expected most seasons. He has already won the NL MVP Award three times, including in the last two straight seasons. He is a 5-time winner of the NL Silver Slugger Award as the top offensive player at his position. Twice he has won the NL Hank Aaron Award as the top hitter in the league. His team is also a perennial contender, with the Cards having won the World Series as recently as 2006, another NL pennant in 2004, and the Central Division 7 times in the past decade.

The Reds and Votto have now emerged to challenge on both the individual and team fronts. As a 1st baseman, Votto is a direct challenger to Pujols' dominance of the position over recent years. Here in Philly we are happy to have Ryan Howard and his prodigious power manning 1st base, but the numbers prove out that both Pujols and Votto are far superior all-around offensive threats the 'The Big Piece'.

Many of Votto's hits this year have been of the game-winning or game-changing variety, further highlighting his MVP candidacy. But he is far from the only reason that the Reds are in contention. They have an excellent all-around veteran infield with 3rd baseman Scott Rolen, shortstop Orland Cabrera, and 2nd baseman Brandon Phillips. Right fielder Jay Bruce is considered one of the best up-and-coming players in the game in his own right. Their young pitching staff has deep talent, and is supported by strong closer Francisco Cordero.

The Cincinnati Reds are back, and with players like Joey Votto leading the way, it appears at this point that they will remain strong contenders in the National League for the foreseeable future. That future is bright not just for the team, but also for the 1st baseman himself, who turns 27 years old on September 10th, and is thus only beginning what should be the prime productive years of his career.

MLB 2010: National League

In nearly every major publication and from most every prognosticator you will find that the 3-time defending NL East winning, 2-time defending National League champion, and back-to-back World Series participant Philadelphia Phillies are considered the odds-on favorites to repeat at least where that eastern crown is concerned. In fact, many have them again winning the NL pennant and advancing back to the Series, some predicting they will win.

An admitted lifelong Phillies fan, this absolutely prejudiced observer is calling it that way. Phillies to win their 4th straight NL East crown, 3rd straight National League pennant, and then a 2nd World Series title in 3 years. Did you expect anything else from me under the current circumstances? However, it will be a struggle, there will be highs and lows, they will be pushed. I will cover the Phillies specifically in detail in my next article here in the coming days.

In that NL East race, the team that will push the Phillies the most this year will be...the Atlanta Braves. In fact, some might even find a reason to pick Atlanta to Tomahawk Chop their way back to the top of the division and unseat the Fightin's from their lofty perch. Atlanta's rotation of Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson & Kenshin Kawakami is talented and deep. The lineup is led by declining veteran and future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones and perhaps the best offensive catcher in the NL in Brian McCann. However, the biggest reason that the Braves will challenge the Phils will be the play of tremendous rookie right fielder Jason Heyward. If you haven't heard of him yet, you will, and soon. Bobby Cox has a strong bullpen as well, and in his final season as manager he should push for a playoff spot.

The Florida Marlins have a superstar and NL MVP candidate in shortstop Hanley Ramirez, a pair of exciting young outfielders in Chris Coghlan and Cameron Maybin, a slugging 2nd baseman in Dan Uggla, and a pair of strong starting pitchers in Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. But they lack the overall roster depth to beat out either the Phils or the Braves. The New York Mets are not as deep or dangerous as in previous seasons, and are once again battling injury. The starting pitching behind Johan Santana is just not deep or talented enough either. They should be good enough to stay ahead of the Washington Nationals, but maybe just for one more season. Once Nats uber-prospect starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg arrives this summer, he may help vault them past New York.

In the NL Central the safe and sexy pick are the St. Louis Cardinals. The best hitter on the planet, Albert Pujols, will now be joined for a full season by the support of star outfielder Matt Holliday. Those two and the 1-2 rotation punch of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are formidable, but I don't think it's going to all be enough to repeat at the top of the division. I like the Cards to slip to 2nd place behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew will be led by a pair of genuine MVP candidates of their own in Ryan Braun (pictured) and Prince Fielder. Yovani Gallardo and Randy Wolf will give them a strong 1-2 rotation punch. I'm calling this a very close race, with an MVP season from Braun providing the difference for the Brewers.

Behind those two top central dogs, I'll call the order: Cincinnati, Chicago, Houston and Pittsburgh. The Reds, like their AL Central and Ohio brothers in Cleveland, have 'dark horse' contender written all over them. If their rotation stays healthy, and if young bats Joey Votto and Jay Bruce produce to their potential, the Reds could surprise and push the top two. The Cubs look like aging underachievers to me, though ace Carlos Zambrano appears to be in shape and motivated. The Astros have talent, especially in it's lineup with Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn, but it is fragile. The Pirates are still just too young, though outfielder Andrew McCutchen will prove one of baseball's most exciting players.

In the NL West, I am looking at perhaps the closest 1-3 race in the league. The Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants (I'll call the finish in that order, since I have to make a prediction) can all win the division here with the right answers to their respective questions. For Colorado, are the young bats at the top of the order in Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler for real? For the LA Dodgers, can Manny Ramirez still be a Hall of Fame offensive force in the middle of the order? In San Fran, can they manufacture enough offense to support what is perhaps the best pitching in the division? In fact, the Arizona Diamondbacks have the roster talent to join this group and make it a 4-team race, but only if they can get ace Brandon Webb healthy early and keep him healthy all year.

I think that the Rockies kids are indeed for real, and that the club will find enough pitching led by starter Ubaldo Jimenez to win the division. The Dodgers will find that Mannywood is shutting down, and that the star slugger will both decline in production and prove to be a disruptive presence in the clubhouse. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson lead a strong and deep Giants' staff, but the 'Kung Fu Panda', Pablo Sandoval, will not have enough offensive help for the team to push past the top two clubs. The health issue will prove to much for Arizona, despite the presence of one of the game's emerging superstars in outfielder Justin Upton. The San Diego Padres will pull up the rear out west, with the biggest item there all season being when, to where, and for what will they trade stud 1st baseman and pending free agent Adrian Gonzalez.

In the playoffs, I think that the Phillies and Brewers will advance to meet one another in the NLCS, repeating their matchup from the 2008 Divisional playoff round which the Phils won by a 3 games to 1 count. I think that the Phils offense will wear down and overwhelm the Brewers pitching, putting Philly into the World Series for the 3rd consecutive season. This would mark the first time since the Stan Musial-led St. Louis Cardinals of 1942-44 that a team from the Senior Curcuit went to 3 straight World Series appearances.

In that World Series, I am going to pick, oh, I don't know, how about those Phillies to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays in a rematch of their 2008 battle. This one could be much closer. The Rays starting pitching is better now, but so is the Phillies. The Rays offense is more experienced now, but then so are the Phillies players. I am  going to give the World Series nod to the combination of Ray Halladay and Cole Hamels, with the Phillies taking it in the full 7-game limit. Another parade down Broad Street for the Fightin' Phils and their fans in early November of 2010.

Picks for the National League award winners are Ryan Braun, the Milwaukee Brewers outfield stud, as the NL Most Valuable Player. The Cy Young Award will go to the Phillies big acquisition, ace righthander Roy Halladay. I will pick outfielder Jason Heyward of the Braves to begin a long and storied career with a Rookie of the Year Award in 2010. However, Heyward will be seriously pushed for that award by starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, taking the honor only because Strasburg will start out with a few weeks in the  minor leagues.

MLB 2009: National League

Unlike the American League, which I covered in yesterday's entry and which is dominated by three teams, the National League pennant race in MLB is wide open. This is both good news and bad for our own Phillies. The bad news is that there are a lot of pretty good teams in the NL that the Phils will have to battle if they want to repeat as National League champions. The good news is that the Phils are one of them, and there is no team that is clearly superior to our defending World Series champs. Tomorrow will be devoted specifically to covering those Phils, but in starting out with the NL East race, let's just say that the Phils match up well with every team, and are better than most. They and the Mets are fairly even, though I still like the Phillies top-to-bottom lineup, their bench, and the depth in their bullpen better than New York. Those Mets will be a strong contender with a lineup that features one of the best young players and leaders in the game in 3rd baseman David Wright and one of the game's most exciting players in speedy shortstop Jose Reyes. Veteran bats like the two Carlos', Delgado and Beltran, provide run-producing pop as well. The rotation is headed by all-world lefty Johan Santana, but has a bunch of question marks after him. The Mets arguably would have won the division the past two years, and possibly a World Series of their own, if they just were able to finish out close games with their bullpen. They finally met that need this off-season by signing record-setting closer Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez, and yet another closer to back him up in J.J. Putz. If they stay healthy, the Mets will not blow many 9th inning leads this time around. But this time the race will not stop at just the Phils and Mets. It seems like every 5-6 years or so the Florida Marlins accumulate enough strong young talent to become serious contenders, and this is possibly one of those years. Their middle infield of 2nd baseman Dan Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez rivals the Phils' own middle of Utley-Rollins as the best in baseball. They have a future all-star in Cameron Maybin about to burst on the scene in their outfield. And their young pitching has depth and talent that is the envy of every team outside of Tampa. The Fish are a couple bats short, and their bullpen is not good enough to overtake the Phils and Mets. But they will make it interesting much of the year, as will the Atlanta Braves. Perhaps no team but the Yankees improved their starting pitching rotation more than the Bravos this off-season. Atlanta added four solid veterans in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, and future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. They team with youngster Jair Jurrjens to give the Braves the best rotation in the east, assuming these guys stay healthy. The Braves lineup has good young parts led by catcher Brian McCann, but the key to contending will be the health of veteran leader Chipper Jones (pictured). If the Braves get a full season out of him, and if both outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson produce, the Braves could seriously challenge the top two teams. I am going to call it in this order: Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals. In the NL Central, most prognosticators are picking the Chicago Cubs, as well as installing the Cubbies as favorites for the NL pennant and a trip to the World Series. There are plenty of reasons to like them starting with a talented and varied offense that includes Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovanny Soto. In the off-season the Cubs signed mercurial outfielder Milton Bradley. I am going to install him as a dark-horse MVP candidate, because if he can stay healthy he has the talent to be a difference-maker for this team. The Cubs have depth and talent in both their rotation and bullpen, but that rotation could easily be set back by injuries. If Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano hold up, the Cubs should win the NL Central. But hot on their heels could well be either or both of the Milwaukee Brewers, whose offense led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun matches up with anyone, or the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have the mighty Albert Pujols back and at full strength, and that is truly scary since he won the NL MVP a year ago during a season in which he was injured. They also get back from injury a pair of arms in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and these guys staying healthy all year will be the key to the Cards staying with the Cubbies. Out in the NL West we can just refer to this as 'Manny Land', because the Dodgers' superstar and future Hall of Famer will be the key to this race. If his head is on straight and he is at full health, Manny will be Manny, and he will lead Joe Torre's troops to another division title. With a vastly improved middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal, and with returning young bats in Russ Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, this lineup could contend even without Ramirez. Beyond young ace Chad Billingsley, who still has to prove he can carry that mantle, and strong closer Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers pitching staff is uncharacteristically full of question marks. Right on their heels will be the Arizona Diamondbacks led by the pitching troika of Brandon Webb-Dan Haren-Randy Johnson. With strong young bats like Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Conor Jackson, and a deep pitching staff, this team could very well unseat the Dodgers. The pick here is for those Dodgers bats to hold off the DBacks pitching edge, but it could be very close. Behind the division-winning Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers the other contenders in New York, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Arizona should lead the Wildcard charge, and I like the DBacks to take that race. The playoff battles are going to come down to the same keys as they do every year: who is healthy and who is pitching well come October. This is just too close to call right now, but since I went this far already I'll call it a rematch of Phillies-Dodgers for the pennant, and why not pick our Phils to win it again and advance to a World Series rematch with the Rays? They have just as good a shot as anyone else, better than most. Tomorrow's article will be devoted entirely to our World Series champions.

Ryan Howard is Underrated

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard may be the single most feared slugger in Major League Baseball over the past few seasons, and yet somehow the guy remains underrated. How else can you explain that the man who will be the National League leader in both homeruns and rbi will likely be left off the N.L. All-Star team when next Tuesday's mid-summer classic takes place? Should he not make the squad, Howard would be the first player in 60 years to be leading his league in both categories and still not make the team. The problem for some who make the selections, and who evaluate ballplayers, is that Howard strikes out at an even more prolific rate than he homers, and that his batting average of .234 is too low. However, there are a number of problems with criticizing Howard for these perceived shortcomings. First, as pointed out in today's Philadelphia Inquirer by writer Todd Zolecki, the folks at baseball think-tank Baseball Prospectus did research on the relationship between teams' strikeout rates and run production for a period covering over a half-century, from the 1950-2002 seasons, and found no correlation whatsoever. In 2005, after taking another look at the strikeout-runs correlation, they noted that each strikeout only costs a team about 3/100's of a run. Ryan Howard strikes out a lot, but that is highly overrated. If he struck out 50 fewer times, but instead 30 of those were groundouts and 20 were decent-length flyouts, would he be viewed any better? His average certainly would be just the same, and just as poor. However, again average is another deceptive statistic. A batting average determines roughly how many times out of every ten at-bats a player will get a hit. If one player will get 23 hits for every 100 at-bats, and another player will get 27 hits for every 100 at-bats, does that make the latter player much more effective? In fact, does it make that player more effective at all? Fact is that so far this season, Howard is the former player, while Kevin Kouzmanoff of San Diego would be a prime example of the latter. Howard is hitting .234 while Kouzmanoff is hitting .274 with 11 homers and 37 rib. Kouzmanoff is hitting 40 points higher. Who would you rather have on your team, now or in the future? Another factor to consider is that Howard has fallen into a pattern of starting slow and finishing big over the course of a season. Two months ago, he was hitting just .163, but has hit a solid .272 since that time. The fact is that Ryan Howard is one of the best run-producers in all of baseball, and scoring runs is the name of the game. He leads the majors in homers and is 2nd in RBI. Health allowing, he is going to smack close to 50 homeruns again this year, and drive in close to 140 runs. The final argument on Howard's all-star worthiness should be the production of others at the position so far in 2008. The other leading contenders would perhaps be N.L. starter Lance Berkman (.348/22/70), Derek Lee/Cubs (.304/15/55), Adrian Gonzalez/Padres (.279/22/70), and Albert Pujols/Cardinals (.348/18/49). Both Gonzalez & Pujols have been named as reserves for the N.L. squad, and are deserving for consideration. But Howard's 27 homers and 83 rbi lead both of them, even factoring in that Pujols spent some time injured. This time of year, every team can look around and find a couple of players on their roster who they believe should have been all-stars but who fail to make the final cut. On the Phils' roster most would probably try to make the case for Pat Burrell & Cole Hamels. But I think that an even more compelling case can be made for Ryan Howard, who because of an over-emphasis on his strikeouts and low average has somehow reached the status of underrated ballplayer. If the Phillies were to actually lose his 50 homeruns and 140 rbi, they would not replace them, perhaps ever again.